TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13128729
Played Sep 14Finished
Sebastian Szostok
Home
1.58
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511118811116114
Grzegorz Marud
Away
2.14
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:22 and never touched — 57.3% is still 57.3%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
57.3%
57.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
86 points played in total.
Set by set
511118811116114
H2H Sebastian Szostok 26–16 Grzegorz Marud Grzegorz Marud has won 16 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:22What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.58 (58%)
Szostok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-16 in 42
Szostok
Correct
gap of 10 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostok 1532 vs Marud 1473
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostok 60% vs Marud 40%
Szostok
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostok 60% vs Marud 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostok +1 · Marud -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Szostok) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostok 1.58 / Marud 2.14
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Szostok)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13128729
Szostok1.58
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 316 of 489
Up 2–0, closes it94% 122 of 130
Up 1–0, closes it79% 203 of 256
Marud2.14
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 122 of 301
Down 0–1, comes back22% 36 of 165
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzostok6wins
AwayMarud4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSzostok leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostok83.3%5 of 6
AwayMarud75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostok6Marud4n = 10Szostok took 6 of 10
S2Szostok7Marud3n = 10Szostok took 7 of 10
S3Szostok3Marud7n = 10Marud took 7 of 10
S4Szostok5Marud4n = 9Szostok took 5 of 9
S5Szostok2Marud1n = 3Szostok took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzostokMarudS − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.238.4+1.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostokMarudBasisWin rate · lifetime922 / 1572 vs 641 / 136258.7%47.1%922 / 1572 vs 641 / 1362Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.337.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokSzostok 1.58/Marud 2.14
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.9%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 03:05S. Szostok4161113113G. Marud401191191
WAug 30 · 21:05S. Szostok4011117113G. Marud30671161
LJul 21 · 16:25S. Szostok381189101G. Marud4281111123
WJul 13 · 24:20S. Szostok331111113G. Marud268990
WJul 12 · 20:20S. Szostok4213117113G. Marud341181141
LMay 26 · 02:20S. Szostok4081141162G. Marud43114116113
WMay 25 · 18:20S. Szostok521191110113G. Marud4281151262
LApr 20 · 02:20S. Szostok30311881G. Marud4211911113
LApr 19 · 18:20S. Szostok367118101G. Marud4111711123
WApr 7 · 02:20S. Szostok50118811123G. Marud44911113102
S. Szostok10
WSep 14 · 20:45K. Adamus2.0011581182S. Szostok1.71911118113LSep 14 · 19:30I. Szymanski4.551111710113S. Szostok1.1469111282WSep 14 · 17:55K. Schaniel2.35118101172S. Szostok1.48411125113WSep 13 · 14:40S. Szostok2.001111113W. Wojtaszczyk1.736860LSep 13 · 13:05S. Szostok1.44117118192Z. Sobkow2.63611311213WSep 13 · 11:50S. Szostok1.80816117113M. Lach1.91111471182WSep 13 · 10:10S. Szostok2.50111111113A. Cichocki1.50136941WSep 13 · 09:00S. Szostok1.831161011113J. Wieczerzak1.8381112772LSep 13 · 07:45A. Cichocki1.501111113S. Szostok2.507880LSep 13 · 06:55Z. Sobkow2.3891111113S. Szostok1.53116751
G. Marud10
LSep 14 · 19:55K. Schaniel2.009111411113G. Marud1.7111216382LSep 14 · 19:10K. Adamus1.8211118113G. Marud1.88771161WSep 14 · 17:30O. Jadach1.5721190G. Marud2.151113113WSep 14 · 04:40G. Marud1.711111133O. Vincenec2.0084110LSep 14 · 03:05M. Adamus1.80811811113G. Marud1.8511311692WSep 14 · 02:20A. Ruszkiewicz2.457990G. Marud1.451111113WSep 14 · 01:30G. Marud1.471111113J. Nowak2.373940LSep 14 · 24:20G. Marud2.179137111O. Jadach1.56111111133LSep 13 · 22:40G. Marud1.78961191O. Vincenec1.9311118113WSep 13 · 21:05M. Adamus2.056650G. Marud1.681111113
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