TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125242
Played Sep 14Finished
Mariusz Adamus
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811113811116119
Grzegorz Marud
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Marud to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
89 points played in total.
Set by set
811113811116119
H2H Mariusz Adamus 21–21 Grzegorz Marud Dead even across their 42 meetings.
Last 10 · 7–3Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Marud beat Adamus 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:05What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Adamus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-21 in 42
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1439 vs Marud 1487
Marud
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 60% vs Marud 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 80% vs Marud 60%
Adamus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +1 · Marud +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.80 / Marud 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Adamus)+3.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13125242
Adamus1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 210 of 386
Up 2–0, closes it89% 79 of 89
Up 1–0, closes it71% 144 of 202
Marud1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 125 of 305
Down 0–1, comes back22% 37 of 168
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus7wins
AwayMarud3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus83.3%5 of 6
AwayMarud50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus6Marud4n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S2Adamus3Marud7n = 10Marud took 7 of 10
S3Adamus5Marud5n = 10split evenly
S4Adamus7Marud1n = 8Adamus took 7 of 8
S5Adamus2Marud1n = 3Adamus took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusMarudA − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.437.2+2.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusMarudBasisWin rate · lifetime797 / 1634 vs 640 / 135948.8%47.1%797 / 1634 vs 640 / 1359Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.80/Marud 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 01:30M. Adamus4314711113G. Marud351211391
LAug 31 · 19:55M. Adamus3197150G. Marud391111173
WJun 17 · 02:00M. Adamus4211128113G. Marud359101151
LJun 16 · 19:10M. Adamus4411581192G. Marud47911115113
WJun 9 · 04:40M. Adamus47111177113G. Marud4295111162
WJun 8 · 22:40M. Adamus43371111113G. Marud4211119292
WMay 19 · 16:25M. Adamus3911611113G. Marud28611471
WMay 12 · 15:10M. Adamus3911611113G. Marud32711681
LMay 5 · 18:00M. Adamus2358100G. Marud341111123
WApr 28 · 22:50M. Adamus4391112113G. Marud381191081
M. Adamus10
WSep 14 · 01:55M. Adamus1.8181111113O. Vincenec1.82119661LSep 14 · 24:45A. Ruszkiewicz1.751111113M. Adamus1.987890WSep 13 · 23:55M. Adamus1.8581111123J. Nowak1.801178101WSep 13 · 22:20M. Adamus1.62911611123A. Ruszkiewicz2.07115115102LSep 13 · 21:05M. Adamus2.056650G. Marud1.681111113WSep 13 · 19:55M. Adamus1.8311811113O. Vincenec1.83411851WSep 13 · 18:45O. Jadach1.468780M. Adamus2.401111113WSep 13 · 17:55M. Adamus1.659101113113J. Nowak2.10111241172WSep 13 · 08:20M. Adamus2.101211113K. Juszczyk1.6010670WSep 13 · 06:45T. Lojtek2.209450M. Adamus1.601111113
G. Marud10
WSep 14 · 02:20A. Ruszkiewicz2.457990G. Marud1.451111113WSep 14 · 01:30G. Marud1.471111113J. Nowak2.373940LSep 14 · 24:20G. Marud2.179137111O. Jadach1.56111111133LSep 13 · 22:40G. Marud1.78961191O. Vincenec1.9311118113WSep 13 · 21:05M. Adamus2.056650G. Marud1.681111113LSep 13 · 20:20O. Jadach1.601111113G. Marud2.105970WSep 13 · 19:30G. Marud1.50119117113J. Nowak2.4061181162LSep 13 · 18:20G. Marud1.7091111142A. Ruszkiewicz2.00117811113WSep 9 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.57143151G. Marud2.25121111113WSep 9 · 01:00L. Oracz1.83116871G. Marud1.8361111113
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