TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125247
Played Sep 14Finished
Adam Ruszkiewicz
Home
2.45
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711911911––––
Grzegorz Marud
Away
1.45
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:07 and never touched — 65.6% is still 65.6%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Marud to win
65.6%
65.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
58 points played in total.
Set by set
711911911––––
H2H Adam Ruszkiewicz 8–6 Grzegorz Marud Grzegorz Marud has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Ruszkiewicz beat Marud 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:07What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (63%)
Marud
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Ruszkiewicz
Wrong
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruszkiewicz 1420 vs Marud 1475
Marud
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruszkiewicz 40% vs Marud 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruszkiewicz 40% vs Marud 60%
Marud
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruszkiewicz +1 · Marud +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Marud) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marud form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuszkiewicz 2.45 / Marud 1.45
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Marud)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13125247
Ruszkiewicz2.45
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 139 of 343
Down 0–1, comes back23% 41 of 180
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 100
Marud1.45
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 120 of 222
Up 2–0, closes it86% 72 of 84
Up 1–0, closes it70% 97 of 138
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRuszkiewicz6wins
AwayMarud4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRuszkiewicz leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuszkiewicz85.7%6 of 7
AwayMarud100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruszkiewicz7Marud3n = 10Ruszkiewicz took 7 of 10
S2Ruszkiewicz6Marud4n = 10Ruszkiewicz took 6 of 10
S3Ruszkiewicz3Marud7n = 10Marud took 7 of 10
S4Ruszkiewicz5Marud3n = 8Ruszkiewicz took 5 of 8
S5Ruszkiewicz2Marud2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRuszkiewiczMarudR − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.536.7+1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuszkiewiczMarudBasisWin rate · lifetime318 / 863 vs 639 / 135836.9%47.1%318 / 863 vs 639 / 1358Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarudRuszkiewicz 2.45/Marud 1.45
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.2%
Marud · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 18:20A. Ruszkiewicz48117811113G. Marud3691111142
WDec 30 · 17:25A. Ruszkiewicz331111113G. Marud249690
WAug 20 · 01:10A. Ruszkiewicz3911611113G. Marud25611261
WAug 5 · 22:50A. Ruszkiewicz4011117113G. Marud35991161
LAug 5 · 02:45A. Ruszkiewicz177730G. Marud331111113
WAug 4 · 23:05A. Ruszkiewicz50118911113G. Marud4351111882
WJul 23 · 24:45A. Ruszkiewicz4211119113G. Marud32571191
LJul 22 · 18:45A. Ruszkiewicz27511921G. Marud4211911113
LJul 21 · 03:30A. Ruszkiewicz4371211672G. Marud501110711113
LJul 20 · 21:30A. Ruszkiewicz4611119872G. Marud47951111113
A. Ruszkiewicz10
WSep 14 · 24:45A. Ruszkiewicz1.751111113M. Adamus1.987890LSep 13 · 23:30A. Ruszkiewicz2.1068100O. Vincenec1.651111123LSep 13 · 22:20M. Adamus1.62911611123A. Ruszkiewicz2.07115115102LSep 13 · 21:30O. Jadach1.331211113A. Ruszkiewicz2.8510260WSep 13 · 20:45A. Ruszkiewicz1.861111113J. Nowak1.835690WSep 13 · 19:10A. Ruszkiewicz2.059111311113O. Vincenec1.65116111392WSep 13 · 18:20G. Marud1.7091111142A. Ruszkiewicz2.00117811113LSep 12 · 02:10A. Ruszkiewicz2.2581170L. Oracz1.571113113LSep 12 · 24:35S. Krupa1.5391113113A. Ruszkiewicz2.381191151LSep 11 · 23:45G. Sawicki2.00113118123A. Ruszkiewicz1.73611811102
G. Marud10
WSep 14 · 01:30G. Marud1.471111113J. Nowak2.373940LSep 14 · 24:20G. Marud2.179137111O. Jadach1.56111111133LSep 13 · 22:40G. Marud1.78961191O. Vincenec1.9311118113WSep 13 · 21:05M. Adamus2.056650G. Marud1.681111113LSep 13 · 20:20O. Jadach1.601111113G. Marud2.105970WSep 13 · 19:30G. Marud1.50119117113J. Nowak2.4061181162LSep 13 · 18:20G. Marud1.7091111142A. Ruszkiewicz2.00117811113WSep 9 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.57143151G. Marud2.25121111113WSep 9 · 01:00L. Oracz1.83116871G. Marud1.8361111113WSep 9 · 24:10G. Marud1.911111113J. Nowak1.804880
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