TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114980
Played Sep 12Finished
Sebastian Krupa
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111191311115––
Adam Ruszkiewicz
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:58 and never touched — 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timeSebastian Krupa to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSebastian Krupa above · Adam Ruszkiewicz below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 80 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Sebastian Krupa at 64.8%
80 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Krupa 16–8 Adam Ruszkiewicz Adam Ruszkiewicz has won 8 of their 24 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Ruszkiewicz beat Krupa 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:58What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Krupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-8 in 24
Krupa
Correct
gap of 8 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupa 1367 vs Ruszkiewicz 1417
Ruszkiewicz
Wrong
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupa 20% vs Ruszkiewicz 80%
Ruszkiewicz
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupa 40% vs Ruszkiewicz 80%
Ruszkiewicz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupa -1 · Ruszkiewicz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Krupa) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ruszkiewicz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupa 1.53 / Ruszkiewicz 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Krupa)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13114980
Krupa1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 111 of 187
Up 2–0, closes it93% 50 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it76% 81 of 106
Ruszkiewicz2.38
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 136 of 341
Down 0–1, comes back22% 40 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupa7wins
AwayRuszkiewicz3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKrupa leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupa80%4 of 5
AwayRuszkiewicz40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupa5Ruszkiewicz5n = 10split evenly
S2Krupa4Ruszkiewicz6n = 10Ruszkiewicz took 6 of 10
S3Krupa7Ruszkiewicz3n = 10Krupa took 7 of 10
S4Krupa7Ruszkiewicz2n = 9Krupa took 7 of 9
S5Krupa3Ruszkiewicz2n = 5Krupa took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupaRuszkiewiczK − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.339.6+2.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupaRuszkiewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime297 / 594 vs 316 / 86250%36.7%297 / 594 vs 316 / 862Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.835.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupaKrupa 1.53/Ruszkiewicz 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Krupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 18:30S. Krupa—761451A. Ruszkiewicz—111112113
WSep 9 · 18:25S. Krupa—11711113A. Ruszkiewicz—911891
WSep 2 · 16:00S. Krupa—8101111113A. Ruszkiewicz—11124882
LAug 26 · 17:10S. Krupa—21181292A. Ruszkiewicz—1151110113
LJun 19 · 23:30S. Krupa—11861252A. Ruszkiewicz—5111110113
WJun 19 · 19:10S. Krupa—121011113A. Ruszkiewicz—1012881
WApr 7 · 04:00S. Krupa—811119113A. Ruszkiewicz—11551142
WFeb 25 · 18:10S. Krupa—1111113A. Ruszkiewicz—8890
WFeb 15 · 05:00S. Krupa—911911113A. Ruszkiewicz—11511952
WJan 28 · 21:20S. Krupa—11511113A. Ruszkiewicz—611991
S. Krupa10
LSep 11 · 23:20S. Krupa2.208760L. Oracz1.611111113WSep 11 · 22:10G. Sawicki2.7511118101S. Krupa1.4081311123LSep 11 · 21:20S. Krupa2.10118160O. Vincenec1.671311183LSep 11 · 19:40S. Krupa1.67121031362O. Sokolowski2.1010121111113LSep 11 · 18:30S. Krupa1.53761451A. Ruszkiewicz2.38111112113LSep 11 · 17:20S. Krupa1.915370L. Oracz1.801111113WSep 11 · 16:15K. Schaniel1.80761121S. Krupa1.9111114113LSep 11 · 15:25S. Krupa2.10811951O. Vincenec1.6711511113WSep 9 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.70851191S. Krupa2.0011117113WSep 9 · 19:10W. Pytlas1.74911121152S. Krupa1.95116149113
A. Ruszkiewicz10
LSep 11 · 23:45G. Sawicki2.00113118123A. Ruszkiewicz1.73611811102WSep 11 · 22:55A. Ruszkiewicz2.25111177113O. Vincenec1.5774111192WSep 11 · 21:45A. Ruszkiewicz2.0011118123K. Schaniel1.733711101WSep 11 · 20:05A. Ruszkiewicz2.50651111113L. Oracz1.5011118962WSep 11 · 18:30S. Krupa1.53761451A. Ruszkiewicz2.38111112113LSep 11 · 17:45K. Schaniel1.73612116113A. Ruszkiewicz2.00111091172WSep 11 · 16:55A. Ruszkiewicz2.2012119113O. Vincenec1.611081171WSep 11 · 15:50A. Ruszkiewicz2.501011911113O. Sokolowski1.5012911862WSep 9 · 20:45W. Pytlas1.4410860A. Ruszkiewicz2.501211113WSep 9 · 19:35A. Ruszkiewicz2.0911119113M. Baron1.61871171
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