TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13108552
Played Sep 11Finished
Sebastian Krupa
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811115911511––
Oliver Vincenec
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:12 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeOliver Vincenec to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSebastian Krupa above · Oliver Vincenec below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 71 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Oliver Vincenec at 64.1%
71 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Krupa 2–11 Oliver Vincenec Sebastian Krupa has won 2 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:12What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Vincenec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-11 in 13
Vincenec
Correct
gap of 9 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupa 1479 vs Vincenec 1416
Krupa
Wrong
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupa 100% vs Vincenec 100%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupa 80% vs Vincenec 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupa +5 · Vincenec +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Vincenec) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vincenec form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupa 2.10 / Vincenec 1.67
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Vincenec)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13108552
Krupa2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog41% won 70 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back16% 14 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 50
Vincenec1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 150 of 267
Up 2–0, closes it88% 66 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it75% 108 of 144
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupa1wins
AwayVincenec9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVincenec leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVincenec87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupa2Vincenec8n = 10Vincenec took 8 of 10
S2Krupa3Vincenec7n = 10Vincenec took 7 of 10
S3Krupa3Vincenec7n = 10Vincenec took 7 of 10
S4Krupa3Vincenec4n = 7Vincenec took 4 of 7
S5Krupa1Vincenec3n = 4Vincenec took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupaVincenecK − VBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.841.3−3.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupaVincenecBasisWin rate · lifetime295 / 586 vs 657 / 144950.3%45.3%295 / 586 vs 657 / 1449Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VincenecKrupa 2.10/Vincenec 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.6%
Vincenec · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vincenec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 13 · 24:45S. Krupa—91080O. Vincenec—1112113
LMay 12 · 17:10S. Krupa—111091172O. Vincenec—812113113
LMar 18 · 18:10S. Krupa—111155102O. Vincenec—531111123
LJan 18 · 17:00S. Krupa—1591261O. Vincenec—171110113
LDec 26 · 03:45S. Krupa—6990O. Vincenec—1111113
LDec 10 · 19:25S. Krupa—7111071O. Vincenec—11712113
LDec 3 · 19:45S. Krupa—911101172O. Vincenec—117125113
LNov 26 · 18:10S. Krupa—81190O. Vincenec—1113113
LOct 22 · 20:20S. Krupa—671171O. Vincenec—11114113
WOct 8 · 18:45S. Krupa—1281111113O. Vincenec—14119892
S. Krupa10
WSep 9 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.70851191S. Krupa2.0011117113WSep 9 · 19:10W. Pytlas1.74911121152S. Krupa1.95116149113WSep 9 · 18:25S. Krupa1.5111711113A. Ruszkiewicz2.29911891WSep 9 · 16:50S. Krupa1.6711814113M. Baron2.005111281WSep 9 · 16:00W. Jozala2.80119571S. Krupa1.3561111113LSep 7 · 02:00S. Krupa1.8371190K. Schaniel1.871113113LSep 7 · 24:45S. Krupa1.571197101J. Nowak2.2591111123WSep 6 · 23:35S. Krupa2.1011119123J. Pruszkowski1.608311101WSep 6 · 22:25P. Adamus1.60111114442S. Krupa2.151391211113WSep 6 · 21:35S. Krupa1.241111113R. Ogon3.506540
O. Vincenec10
WSep 9 · 14:40O. Vincenec1.911561011113K. Schaniel1.80131112762WSep 9 · 13:05O. Vincenec2.10711911133R. Gajda1.67118119112WSep 9 · 11:50O. Vincenec1.831111104113P. Kurek1.8369121192WSep 9 · 10:10O. Vincenec1.831161413113P. Przewlocki1.83911121562WSep 9 · 09:00O. Vincenec2.1012911113P. Gumulinski1.671011991LSep 9 · 07:45P. Przewlocki1.83311811193O. Vincenec1.83117116172WSep 9 · 06:55R. Gajda1.73711211102O. Vincenec2.00116118123LSep 9 · 06:05O. Vincenec1.914570K. Schaniel1.801111113WSep 9 · 04:30O. Vincenec2.101011211123P. Gumulinski1.67124115102LSep 9 · 03:50P. Kurek1.911111113O. Vincenec1.804850
Upcoming Matches
S. Krupa
Sep 11 · 16:15S. Krupa1.91K. Schaniel1.80—Sep 11 · 17:20S. Krupa1.91L. Oracz1.80—Sep 11 · 18:30S. Krupa1.53A. Ruszkiewicz2.38—Sep 11 · 19:40S. Krupa1.67O. Sokolowski2.10—Sep 11 · 21:20S. Krupa2.10O. Vincenec1.67—Sep 11 · 22:10S. Krupa1.40G. Sawicki2.75—Sep 11 · 23:20S. Krupa1.91L. Oracz1.80—Sep 12 · 24:35S. Krupa1.53A. Ruszkiewicz2.38—Sep 12 · 01:45S. Krupa1.91K. Schaniel1.80—
O. Vincenec
Sep 11 · 16:55O. Vincenec1.61A. Ruszkiewicz2.20—Sep 11 · 18:10O. Vincenec1.80O. Sokolowski1.91—Sep 11 · 19:20O. Vincenec1.83L. Oracz1.83—Sep 11 · 20:30O. Vincenec1.91K. Schaniel1.80—Sep 11 · 21:20O. Vincenec1.67S. Krupa2.10—Sep 11 · 22:55O. Vincenec1.61A. Ruszkiewicz2.20—Sep 12 · 24:10O. Vincenec1.91K. Schaniel1.80—Sep 12 · 01:25O. Vincenec1.83L. Oracz1.83—Sep 12 · 02:35O. Vincenec1.67G. Sawicki2.10—
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.