TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098485
Played Sep 9Finished
Oliver Vincenec
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
15136111012117116
Krzysztof Schaniel
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Schaniel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOliver Vincenec above · Krzysztof Schaniel below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 102 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Krzysztof Schaniel at 54.0%
102 points played in total.
H2H Oliver Vincenec 10–18 Krzysztof Schaniel Oliver Vincenec has won 10 of their 28 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 9h before this match
Schaniel beat Vincenec 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:59What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Schaniel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-18 in 28
Schaniel
Wrong
gap of 8 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vincenec 1423 vs Schaniel 1350
Vincenec
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vincenec 80% vs Schaniel 20%
Vincenec
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vincenec 70% vs Schaniel 40%
Vincenec
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vincenec +4 · Schaniel -1
Vincenec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Schaniel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schaniel form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVincenec 1.91 / Schaniel 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Schaniel)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13098485
Vincenec1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 195 of 492
Down 0–1, comes back25% 72 of 294
Down 0–2, comes back9% 13 of 147
Schaniel1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 217 of 367
Up 2–0, closes it90% 104 of 116
Up 1–0, closes it77% 163 of 213
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVincenec1wins
AwaySchaniel9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSchaniel leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVincenec0%0 of 4
AwaySchaniel83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vincenec4Schaniel6n = 10Schaniel took 6 of 10
S2Vincenec3Schaniel7n = 10Schaniel took 7 of 10
S3Vincenec3Schaniel7n = 10Schaniel took 7 of 10
S4Vincenec2Schaniel6n = 8Schaniel took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVincenecSchanielV − SBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.141.2−9.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVincenecSchanielBasisWin rate · lifetime656 / 1448 vs 876 / 175345.3%50%656 / 1448 vs 876 / 1753Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.239.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchanielVincenec 1.91/Schaniel 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Schaniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vincenec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 06:05O. Vincenec—4570K. Schaniel—1111113
LAug 27 · 09:25O. Vincenec—116311102K. Schaniel—611118123
LAug 27 · 03:25O. Vincenec—133681K. Schaniel—111111113
WJul 10 · 21:00O. Vincenec—71317113K. Schaniel—11111551
LJul 10 · 16:35O. Vincenec—8870K. Schaniel—1111113
LJun 24 · 13:55O. Vincenec—771151K. Schaniel—11119113
LJun 24 · 07:55O. Vincenec—1163111K. Schaniel—71111133
LJun 17 · 13:30O. Vincenec—126381K. Schaniel—101111113
LJun 17 · 07:30O. Vincenec—811661K. Schaniel—11411113
LJun 16 · 13:30O. Vincenec—81111842K. Schaniel—117811113
O. Vincenec10
WSep 9 · 13:05O. Vincenec2.10711911133R. Gajda1.67118119112WSep 9 · 11:50O. Vincenec1.831111104113P. Kurek1.8369121192WSep 9 · 10:10O. Vincenec1.831161413113P. Przewlocki1.83911121562WSep 9 · 09:00O. Vincenec2.1012911113P. Gumulinski1.671011991LSep 9 · 07:45P. Przewlocki1.83311811193O. Vincenec1.83117116172WSep 9 · 06:55R. Gajda1.73711211102O. Vincenec2.00116118123LSep 9 · 06:05O. Vincenec1.914570K. Schaniel1.801111113WSep 9 · 04:30O. Vincenec2.101011211123P. Gumulinski1.67124115102LSep 9 · 03:50P. Kurek1.911111113O. Vincenec1.804850WSep 8 · 16:40O. Vincenec1.9571111113W. Buczynski1.70114561
K. Schaniel10
LSep 9 · 13:30K. Schaniel2.2591111792P. Gumulinski1.57119911113WSep 9 · 12:15R. Gajda1.80111451192K. Schaniel1.917121113113LSep 9 · 11:00P. Kurek1.4411117113K. Schaniel2.63861181LSep 9 · 09:25P. Przewlocki2.20461211113K. Schaniel1.61111110832LSep 9 · 08:35R. Gajda1.83713611113K. Schaniel1.83111111432LSep 9 · 07:20K. Schaniel2.107650P. Gumulinski1.671111113WSep 9 · 06:05O. Vincenec1.914570K. Schaniel1.801111113WSep 9 · 04:55P. Kurek1.445650K. Schaniel2.631111113LSep 9 · 03:25P. Przewlocki2.2071111113K. Schaniel1.61119781WSep 7 · 07:45K. Schaniel2.631111113J. Pruszkowski1.449860
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