TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114376
Played Sep 11Finished
Sebastian Krupa
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
121010123111311611
Oliwier Sokolowski
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:24 and never touched — 68.6% is still 68.6%
Graded at full timeSebastian Krupa to win
68.6%
68.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSebastian Krupa above · Oliwier Sokolowski below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 99 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Sebastian Krupa at 68.6%
99 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Krupa 4–2 Oliwier Sokolowski Oliwier Sokolowski has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:24What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Krupa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Krupa
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupa 1419 vs Sokolowski 1354
Krupa
Wrong
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupa 40% vs Sokolowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupa 60% vs Sokolowski 20%
Krupa
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupa -2 · Sokolowski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Krupa) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupa form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupa 1.67 / Sokolowski 2.10
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Krupa)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13114376
Krupa1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 111 of 187
Up 2–0, closes it93% 50 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it76% 81 of 106
Sokolowski2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 110 of 299
Down 0–1, comes back20% 36 of 181
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKrupa4wins
AwaySokolowski2wins
3 of 6 to a deciderKrupa leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupa100%3 of 3
AwaySokolowski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupa3Sokolowski3n = 6split evenly
S2Krupa2Sokolowski4n = 6Sokolowski took 4 of 6
S3Krupa4Sokolowski2n = 6Krupa took 4 of 6
S4Krupa3Sokolowski2n = 5Krupa took 3 of 5
S5Krupa2Sokolowski1n = 3Krupa took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricKrupaSokolowskiK − SBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match40.337.5+2.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupaSokolowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime296 / 590 vs 223 / 52650.2%42.4%296 / 590 vs 223 / 526Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupaKrupa 1.67/Sokolowski 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.8%
Krupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sokolowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 23 · 17:10S. Krupa—81190O. Sokolowski—1113113
WJun 30 · 11:50S. Krupa—116117113O. Sokolowski—51161192
WJun 30 · 03:50S. Krupa—115118113O. Sokolowski—51141182
WJun 8 · 02:20S. Krupa—31111113O. Sokolowski—118791
LJun 7 · 20:20S. Krupa—91191142O. Sokolowski—118111113
WMar 14 · 05:25S. Krupa—12811113O. Sokolowski—1011561
S. Krupa10
LSep 11 · 18:30S. Krupa1.53761451A. Ruszkiewicz2.38111112113LSep 11 · 17:20S. Krupa1.915370L. Oracz1.801111113WSep 11 · 16:15K. Schaniel1.80761121S. Krupa1.9111114113LSep 11 · 15:25S. Krupa2.10811951O. Vincenec1.6711511113WSep 9 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.70851191S. Krupa2.0011117113WSep 9 · 19:10W. Pytlas1.74911121152S. Krupa1.95116149113WSep 9 · 18:25S. Krupa1.5111711113A. Ruszkiewicz2.29911891WSep 9 · 16:50S. Krupa1.6711814113M. Baron2.005111281WSep 9 · 16:00W. Jozala2.80119571S. Krupa1.3561111113LSep 7 · 02:00S. Krupa1.8371190K. Schaniel1.871113113
O. Sokolowski10
LSep 11 · 18:55K. Schaniel1.8011117113O. Sokolowski1.91791191LSep 11 · 18:10O. Sokolowski1.91911871O. Vincenec1.8011911113WSep 11 · 16:35O. Sokolowski3.25911611113L. Oracz1.3311311792LSep 11 · 15:50A. Ruszkiewicz2.501011911113O. Sokolowski1.5012911862WSep 10 · 08:20P. Adamus2.0081111442O. Sokolowski1.70117811113LSep 10 · 07:35A. Burkacki2.0711911113O. Sokolowski1.62511791LSep 10 · 05:50J. Kaczmarek2.1411712153O. Sokolowski1.5871110131LSep 10 · 04:40P. Slosarczyk2.06119157113O. Sokolowski1.63811131172LSep 10 · 03:10M. Lebek1.521111113O. Sokolowski2.303990LSep 10 · 02:20P. Adamus1.65111012113O. Sokolowski2.104121071
Upcoming Matches
S. Krupa
O. Sokolowski2 of 10 neutral
Sep 12 · 03:35O. Sokolowski1.49O. Sokolowski2.33—Sep 12 · 05:10O. Sokolowski2.40R. Skotniczny1.46—Sep 12 · 06:25O. Sokolowski1.66P. Mecik2.01—Sep 12 · 07:35O. Sokolowski—K. Adamus——Sep 12 · 08:45O. Sokolowski—W. Pytlas——Sep 12 · 23:30O. Sokolowski—G. Sawicki——Sep 13 · 24:45O. Sokolowski—R. Szymik——Sep 13 · 02:20O. Sokolowski—A. Szurgot——Sep 13 · 03:30O. Sokolowski—R. Wiza——Sep 13 · 05:05O. Sokolowski—K. Schaniel——
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