TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13113305
Played Sep 11Finished
Krzysztof Schaniel
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711611114211––
Sebastian Krupa
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:42 and never touched — 61.0% is still 61.0%
Graded at full timeSebastian Krupa to win
61.0%
61.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKrzysztof Schaniel above · Sebastian Krupa below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 63 set 4, 2-11 — our read held Sebastian Krupa at 61.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Schaniel 8–7 Sebastian Krupa Sebastian Krupa has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:42What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Schaniel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-7 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schaniel 1376 vs Krupa 1465
Krupa
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schaniel 40% vs Krupa 80%
Krupa
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schaniel 40% vs Krupa 70%
Krupa
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Schaniel +1 · Krupa -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krupa) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchaniel 1.80 / Krupa 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Krupa)+5.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13113305
Schaniel1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 213 of 361
Up 2–0, closes it90% 102 of 114
Up 1–0, closes it77% 160 of 208
Krupa1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 70 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back16% 14 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSchaniel6wins
AwayKrupa4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSchaniel leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchaniel83.3%5 of 6
AwayKrupa75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schaniel6Krupa4n = 10Schaniel took 6 of 10
S2Schaniel6Krupa4n = 10Schaniel took 6 of 10
S3Schaniel5Krupa5n = 10split evenly
S4Schaniel3Krupa5n = 8Krupa took 5 of 8
S5Schaniel3Krupa2n = 5Schaniel took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSchanielKrupaS − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.140.2+0.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchanielKrupaBasisWin rate · lifetime872 / 1745 vs 295 / 58750%50.3%872 / 1745 vs 295 / 587Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupaSchaniel 1.80/Krupa 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Krupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Krupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 02:00K. Schaniel—1113113S. Krupa—71190
WAug 15 · 04:00K. Schaniel—91211113S. Krupa—1110871
WAug 7 · 15:05K. Schaniel—114139113S. Krupa—911111192
LAug 7 · 09:05K. Schaniel—12119552S. Krupa—1081111113
LJan 26 · 01:00K. Schaniel—1111791S. Krupa—13411113
WDec 3 · 21:20K. Schaniel—118119113S. Krupa—71181192
LOct 8 · 15:35K. Schaniel—61191152S. Krupa—117115113
WOct 1 · 16:25K. Schaniel—1191112113S. Krupa—51141482
LSep 3 · 20:20K. Schaniel—8670S. Krupa—1111113
WApr 21 · 04:40K. Schaniel—11115113S. Krupa—681171
K. Schaniel10
WSep 11 · 15:00K. Schaniel2.3811118113L. Oracz1.53641171LSep 9 · 14:40O. Vincenec1.911561011113K. Schaniel1.80131112762LSep 9 · 13:30K. Schaniel2.2591111792P. Gumulinski1.57119911113WSep 9 · 12:15R. Gajda1.80111451192K. Schaniel1.917121113113LSep 9 · 11:00P. Kurek1.4411117113K. Schaniel2.63861181LSep 9 · 09:25P. Przewlocki2.20461211113K. Schaniel1.61111110832LSep 9 · 08:35R. Gajda1.83713611113K. Schaniel1.83111111432LSep 9 · 07:20K. Schaniel2.107650P. Gumulinski1.671111113WSep 9 · 06:05O. Vincenec1.914570K. Schaniel1.801111113WSep 9 · 04:55P. Kurek1.445650K. Schaniel2.631111113
S. Krupa10
LSep 11 · 15:25S. Krupa2.10811951O. Vincenec1.6711511113WSep 9 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.70851191S. Krupa2.0011117113WSep 9 · 19:10W. Pytlas1.74911121152S. Krupa1.95116149113WSep 9 · 18:25S. Krupa1.5111711113A. Ruszkiewicz2.29911891WSep 9 · 16:50S. Krupa1.6711814113M. Baron2.005111281WSep 9 · 16:00W. Jozala2.80119571S. Krupa1.3561111113LSep 7 · 02:00S. Krupa1.8371190K. Schaniel1.871113113LSep 7 · 24:45S. Krupa1.571197101J. Nowak2.2591111123WSep 6 · 23:35S. Krupa2.1011119123J. Pruszkowski1.608311101WSep 6 · 22:25P. Adamus1.60111114442S. Krupa2.151391211113
Upcoming Matches
K. Schaniel
Sep 11 · 17:45K. Schaniel1.73A. Ruszkiewicz2.00—Sep 11 · 18:55K. Schaniel1.83O. Sokolowski1.83—Sep 11 · 20:30K. Schaniel1.80O. Vincenec1.91—Sep 11 · 21:45K. Schaniel1.73A. Ruszkiewicz2.00—Sep 11 · 22:35K. Schaniel2.38L. Oracz1.53—Sep 12 · 24:10K. Schaniel1.67O. Vincenec2.10—Sep 12 · 01:00K. Schaniel1.50G. Sawicki2.50—Sep 12 · 01:45K. Schaniel1.80S. Krupa1.91—Sep 12 · 17:55K. Schaniel—R. Szymik——Sep 12 · 19:30K. Schaniel—A. Szurgot——
S. Krupa
Sep 11 · 17:20S. Krupa1.91L. Oracz1.80—Sep 11 · 18:30S. Krupa1.53A. Ruszkiewicz2.38—Sep 11 · 19:40S. Krupa1.67O. Sokolowski2.10—Sep 11 · 21:20S. Krupa2.10O. Vincenec1.67—Sep 11 · 22:10S. Krupa1.40G. Sawicki2.75—Sep 11 · 23:20S. Krupa1.91L. Oracz1.80—Sep 12 · 24:35S. Krupa1.53A. Ruszkiewicz2.38—Sep 12 · 01:45S. Krupa1.91K. Schaniel1.80—
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