TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13113300
Played Sep 11Finished
Oliwier Sokolowski
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911113611117119
Lukasz Oracz
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:43 and never touched — 74.2% is still 74.2%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
74.2%
74.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOliwier Sokolowski above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 89 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 74.2%
89 points played in total.
H2H Oliwier Sokolowski 1–6 Lukasz Oracz Oliwier Sokolowski has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:43What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Oracz
Wrong
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sokolowski 1362 vs Oracz 1530
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 167 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sokolowski 20% vs Oracz 60%
Oracz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sokolowski 30% vs Oracz 60%
Oracz
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sokolowski -1 · Oracz -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSokolowski 3.25 / Oracz 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Oracz)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13113300
Sokolowski3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 110 of 299
Down 0–1, comes back20% 36 of 181
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 109
Oracz1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 379 of 601
Up 2–0, closes it97% 203 of 210
Up 1–0, closes it83% 296 of 358
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSokolowski1wins
AwayOracz6wins
2 of 7 to a deciderOracz leads 6–1, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSokolowskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayOracz80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sokolowski2Oracz5n = 7Oracz took 5 of 7
S2Sokolowski1Oracz6n = 7Oracz took 6 of 7
S3Sokolowski2Oracz5n = 7Oracz took 5 of 7
S4Sokolowski1Oracz3n = 4Oracz took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away343%
These 7 meetings
MetricSokolowskiOraczS − OBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match28.940.6−11.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSokolowskiOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime222 / 523 vs 827 / 148642.5%55.7%222 / 523 vs 827 / 1486Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczSokolowski 3.25/Oracz 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.3%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sokolowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 1 · 13:30O. Sokolowski—11070L. Oracz—1112113
LSep 1 · 07:30O. Sokolowski—11581162L. Oracz—411117113
LJul 3 · 14:20O. Sokolowski—651181L. Oracz—11119113
LJul 3 · 06:20O. Sokolowski—147681L. Oracz—121111113
WJun 29 · 12:40O. Sokolowski—713127123L. Oracz—11111011102
LJun 29 · 06:30O. Sokolowski—4830L. Oracz—1111113
LJun 5 · 07:10O. Sokolowski—2280L. Oracz—1111113
O. Sokolowski10
LSep 11 · 15:50A. Ruszkiewicz2.501011911113O. Sokolowski1.5012911862WSep 10 · 08:20P. Adamus2.0081111442O. Sokolowski1.70117811113LSep 10 · 07:35A. Burkacki2.0711911113O. Sokolowski1.62511791LSep 10 · 05:50J. Kaczmarek2.1411712153O. Sokolowski1.5871110131LSep 10 · 04:40P. Slosarczyk2.06119157113O. Sokolowski1.63811131172LSep 10 · 03:10M. Lebek1.521111113O. Sokolowski2.303990LSep 10 · 02:20P. Adamus1.65111012113O. Sokolowski2.104121071WSep 10 · 01:35A. Burkacki1.95711971O. Sokolowski1.7511911113LSep 9 · 23:35M. Baron1.83111111123O. Sokolowski1.868913101WSep 9 · 22:50M. Lebek1.529590O. Sokolowski2.301111113
L. Oracz10
LSep 11 · 15:00K. Schaniel2.3811118113L. Oracz1.53641171LSep 10 · 14:40L. Oracz1.738990W. Urban2.001111113WSep 10 · 13:05L. Oracz1.5041111113P. Kurek2.50114391WSep 10 · 11:50L. Oracz1.301111113M. Sikon3.406890WSep 10 · 10:10L. Oracz1.53111176153R. Idaczyk2.38821111132WSep 10 · 09:00L. Oracz2.101111153K. Slawinski1.6748130LSep 10 · 07:45R. Idaczyk2.6311101011113L. Oracz1.4491212752LSep 10 · 06:55P. Kurek2.3861111113L. Oracz1.53116731WSep 10 · 06:10L. Oracz1.7312411113W. Urban2.001011891WSep 10 · 04:20L. Oracz2.0012815113K. Slawinski1.7310111391
Upcoming Matches
O. Sokolowski1 of 10 neutral
Sep 11 · 18:10O. Sokolowski1.91O. Vincenec1.80—Sep 11 · 18:55O. Sokolowski1.83K. Schaniel1.83—Sep 11 · 19:40O. Sokolowski2.10S. Krupa1.67—Sep 12 · 03:35O. Sokolowski1.49O. Sokolowski2.33—Sep 12 · 05:10O. Sokolowski—R. Skotniczny——Sep 12 · 06:25O. Sokolowski—P. Mecik——Sep 12 · 07:35O. Sokolowski—K. Adamus——Sep 12 · 08:45O. Sokolowski—W. Pytlas——Sep 12 · 23:30O. Sokolowski—G. Sawicki——Sep 13 · 24:45O. Sokolowski—R. Szymik——
L. Oracz
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