TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13113613
Played Sep 11Finished
Sebastian Krupa
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7116111412511––
Adam Ruszkiewicz
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:34 and never touched — 66.7% is still 66.7%
Graded at full timeSebastian Krupa to win
66.7%
66.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSebastian Krupa above · Adam Ruszkiewicz below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 4-9
Point 74 set 4, 4-9 — our read held Sebastian Krupa at 66.7%
74 points drawn · the score is 3 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Sebastian Krupa 16–7 Adam Ruszkiewicz Adam Ruszkiewicz has won 7 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:34What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Krupa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-7 in 23
Krupa
Wrong
gap of 9 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupa 1448 vs Ruszkiewicz 1354
Krupa
Wrong
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupa 60% vs Ruszkiewicz 80%
Ruszkiewicz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupa 60% vs Ruszkiewicz 40%
Krupa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupa -1 · Ruszkiewicz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Krupa) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ruszkiewicz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupa 1.53 / Ruszkiewicz 2.38
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Krupa)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13113613
Krupa1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 111 of 187
Up 2–0, closes it93% 50 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it76% 81 of 106
Ruszkiewicz2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 136 of 341
Down 0–1, comes back22% 40 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupa7wins
AwayRuszkiewicz3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKrupa leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupa80%4 of 5
AwayRuszkiewicz40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupa5Ruszkiewicz5n = 10split evenly
S2Krupa4Ruszkiewicz6n = 10Ruszkiewicz took 6 of 10
S3Krupa6Ruszkiewicz4n = 10Krupa took 6 of 10
S4Krupa7Ruszkiewicz1n = 8Krupa took 7 of 8
S5Krupa3Ruszkiewicz2n = 5Krupa took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupaRuszkiewiczK − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.938.4+2.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupaRuszkiewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime296 / 589 vs 312 / 85950.3%36.3%296 / 589 vs 312 / 859Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.835.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupaKrupa 1.53/Ruszkiewicz 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.8%
Krupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ruszkiewicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 18:25S. Krupa—11711113A. Ruszkiewicz—911891
WSep 2 · 16:00S. Krupa—8101111113A. Ruszkiewicz—11124882
LAug 26 · 17:10S. Krupa—21181292A. Ruszkiewicz—1151110113
LJun 19 · 23:30S. Krupa—11861252A. Ruszkiewicz—5111110113
WJun 19 · 19:10S. Krupa—121011113A. Ruszkiewicz—1012881
WApr 7 · 04:00S. Krupa—811119113A. Ruszkiewicz—11551142
WFeb 25 · 18:10S. Krupa—1111113A. Ruszkiewicz—8890
WFeb 15 · 05:00S. Krupa—911911113A. Ruszkiewicz—11511952
WJan 28 · 21:20S. Krupa—11511113A. Ruszkiewicz—611991
LJan 21 · 18:10S. Krupa—5760A. Ruszkiewicz—1111113
S. Krupa10
LSep 11 · 17:20S. Krupa1.915370L. Oracz1.801111113WSep 11 · 16:15K. Schaniel1.80761121S. Krupa1.9111114113LSep 11 · 15:25S. Krupa2.10811951O. Vincenec1.6711511113WSep 9 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.70851191S. Krupa2.0011117113WSep 9 · 19:10W. Pytlas1.74911121152S. Krupa1.95116149113WSep 9 · 18:25S. Krupa1.5111711113A. Ruszkiewicz2.29911891WSep 9 · 16:50S. Krupa1.6711814113M. Baron2.005111281WSep 9 · 16:00W. Jozala2.80119571S. Krupa1.3561111113LSep 7 · 02:00S. Krupa1.8371190K. Schaniel1.871113113LSep 7 · 24:45S. Krupa1.571197101J. Nowak2.2591111123
A. Ruszkiewicz10
LSep 11 · 17:45K. Schaniel1.73612116113A. Ruszkiewicz2.00111091172WSep 11 · 16:55A. Ruszkiewicz2.2012119113O. Vincenec1.611081171WSep 11 · 15:50A. Ruszkiewicz2.501011911113O. Sokolowski1.5012911862WSep 9 · 20:45W. Pytlas1.4410860A. Ruszkiewicz2.501211113WSep 9 · 19:35A. Ruszkiewicz2.0911119113M. Baron1.61871171LSep 9 · 18:25S. Krupa1.5111711113A. Ruszkiewicz2.29911891LSep 9 · 17:10W. Jozala1.951111113A. Ruszkiewicz1.759050LSep 9 · 15:35M. Koczyba1.331111113A. Ruszkiewicz3.107980LSep 8 · 08:20A. Ruszkiewicz2.15511212102M. Adamus1.601171110123LSep 8 · 06:45K. Hetnar1.3011118113A. Ruszkiewicz3.00641181
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