TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13113618
Played Sep 11Finished
Oliwier Sokolowski
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911119811711––
Oliver Vincenec
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:35 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeOliver Vincenec to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOliwier Sokolowski above · Oliver Vincenec below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 77 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Oliver Vincenec at 59.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Oliwier Sokolowski 5–5 Oliver Vincenec Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:35What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vincenec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sokolowski 1367 vs Vincenec 1407
Vincenec
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sokolowski 40% vs Vincenec 80%
Vincenec
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sokolowski 30% vs Vincenec 70%
Vincenec
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sokolowski +1 · Vincenec -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vincenec) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vincenec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSokolowski 1.91 / Vincenec 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vincenec)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13113618
Sokolowski1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 110 of 299
Down 0–1, comes back20% 36 of 181
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 109
Vincenec1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 150 of 267
Up 2–0, closes it88% 66 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it75% 108 of 144
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSokolowski5wins
AwayVincenec5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSokolowski100%5 of 5
AwayVincenec100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sokolowski5Vincenec5n = 10split evenly
S2Sokolowski4Vincenec6n = 10Vincenec took 6 of 10
S3Sokolowski5Vincenec5n = 10split evenly
S4Sokolowski2Vincenec5n = 7Vincenec took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSokolowskiVincenecS − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.138.0−0.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSokolowskiVincenecBasisWin rate · lifetime224 / 527 vs 660 / 145442.5%45.4%224 / 527 vs 660 / 1454Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VincenecSokolowski 1.91/Vincenec 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vincenec · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vincenec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 18:10O. Sokolowski35911871O. Vincenec4211911113
WJul 30 · 11:00O. Sokolowski43111011113O. Vincenec34712871
WJul 30 · 04:55O. Sokolowski51128118123O. Vincenec441011211102
LApr 12 · 13:30O. Sokolowski31511781O. Vincenec3911611113
WApr 12 · 07:30O. Sokolowski331111113O. Vincenec259880
WMar 7 · 05:50O. Sokolowski5811101313113O. Vincenec47612111532
LDec 21 · 18:05O. Sokolowski2310850O. Vincenec341211113
WDec 21 · 09:45O. Sokolowski44111012113O. Vincenec387121091
LDec 20 · 18:05O. Sokolowski143650O. Vincenec331111113
LDec 20 · 09:45O. Sokolowski3910117111O. Vincenec4412811133
O. Sokolowski10
WSep 12 · 08:45W. Pytlas1.5811514111O. Sokolowski2.1471116133LSep 12 · 07:35O. Sokolowski2.4612711652K. Adamus1.441011711113LSep 12 · 06:25P. Mecik2.0111118113O. Sokolowski1.66981191WSep 12 · 05:10R. Skotniczny1.809570O. Sokolowski1.851111113LSep 12 · 03:35O. Sokolowski2.251712113O. Sokolowski1.57151080WSep 11 · 19:40S. Krupa1.67121031362O. Sokolowski2.1010121111113LSep 11 · 18:55K. Schaniel1.8011117113O. Sokolowski1.91791191WSep 11 · 16:35O. Sokolowski3.25911611113L. Oracz1.3311311792LSep 11 · 15:50A. Ruszkiewicz2.501011911113O. Sokolowski1.5012911862WSep 10 · 08:20P. Adamus2.0081111442O. Sokolowski1.70117811113
O. Vincenec10
LSep 12 · 02:35G. Sawicki2.10891111113O. Vincenec1.6711117982LSep 12 · 01:25O. Vincenec2.1011791162L. Oracz1.67511117113WSep 12 · 24:10K. Schaniel1.67811311102O. Vincenec2.10118116123LSep 11 · 22:55A. Ruszkiewicz2.25111177113O. Vincenec1.5774111192WSep 11 · 21:20S. Krupa2.10118160O. Vincenec1.671311183LSep 11 · 20:30K. Schaniel1.73117915113O. Vincenec2.00811111372WSep 11 · 19:20O. Vincenec1.8371111123L. Oracz1.831187101LSep 11 · 16:55A. Ruszkiewicz2.2012119113O. Vincenec1.611081171WSep 11 · 15:25S. Krupa2.10811951O. Vincenec1.6711511113WSep 9 · 14:40O. Vincenec1.911561011113K. Schaniel1.80131112762
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