TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114368
Played Sep 11Finished
Krzysztof Schaniel
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1187119111513117
Oliver Vincenec
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:29 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeOliver Vincenec to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKrzysztof Schaniel above · Oliver Vincenec below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 15-13
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 103 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Oliver Vincenec at 57.1%
103 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Schaniel 18–11 Oliver Vincenec Oliver Vincenec has won 11 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:29What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Schaniel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-11 in 29
Schaniel
Correct
gap of 7 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schaniel 1411 vs Vincenec 1418
Vincenec
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schaniel 60% vs Vincenec 80%
Vincenec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schaniel 40% vs Vincenec 80%
Vincenec
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Schaniel +2 · Vincenec +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Schaniel) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vincenec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchaniel 1.73 / Vincenec 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Schaniel)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13114368
Schaniel1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 213 of 361
Up 2–0, closes it90% 102 of 114
Up 1–0, closes it77% 160 of 208
Vincenec2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 200 of 499
Down 0–1, comes back25% 74 of 297
Down 0–2, comes back9% 13 of 148
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSchaniel8wins
AwayVincenec2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSchaniel leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchaniel80%4 of 5
AwayVincenec20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schaniel5Vincenec5n = 10split evenly
S2Schaniel8Vincenec2n = 10Schaniel took 8 of 10
S3Schaniel8Vincenec2n = 10Schaniel took 8 of 10
S4Schaniel5Vincenec3n = 8Schaniel took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSchanielVincenecS − VBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.333.2+8.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchanielVincenecBasisWin rate · lifetime871 / 1745 vs 660 / 145349.9%45.4%871 / 1745 vs 660 / 1453Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchanielSchaniel 1.73/Vincenec 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Schaniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Schaniel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 14:40K. Schaniel—131112762O. Vincenec—1561011113
WSep 9 · 06:05K. Schaniel—1111113O. Vincenec—4570
WAug 27 · 09:25K. Schaniel—611118123O. Vincenec—116311102
WAug 27 · 03:25K. Schaniel—111111113O. Vincenec—133681
LJul 10 · 21:00K. Schaniel—11111551O. Vincenec—71317113
WJul 10 · 16:35K. Schaniel—1111113O. Vincenec—8870
WJun 24 · 13:55K. Schaniel—11119113O. Vincenec—771151
WJun 24 · 07:55K. Schaniel—71111133O. Vincenec—1163111
WJun 17 · 13:30K. Schaniel—101111113O. Vincenec—126381
WJun 17 · 07:30K. Schaniel—11411113O. Vincenec—811661
K. Schaniel10
WSep 11 · 18:55K. Schaniel1.8011117113O. Sokolowski1.91791191WSep 11 · 17:45K. Schaniel1.73612116113A. Ruszkiewicz2.00111091172LSep 11 · 16:15K. Schaniel1.80761121S. Krupa1.9111114113WSep 11 · 15:00K. Schaniel2.3811118113L. Oracz1.53641171LSep 9 · 14:40O. Vincenec1.911561011113K. Schaniel1.80131112762LSep 9 · 13:30K. Schaniel2.2591111792P. Gumulinski1.57119911113WSep 9 · 12:15R. Gajda1.80111451192K. Schaniel1.917121113113LSep 9 · 11:00P. Kurek1.4411117113K. Schaniel2.63861181LSep 9 · 09:25P. Przewlocki2.20461211113K. Schaniel1.61111110832LSep 9 · 08:35R. Gajda1.83713611113K. Schaniel1.83111111432
O. Vincenec10
WSep 11 · 19:20O. Vincenec1.8371111123L. Oracz1.831187101WSep 11 · 18:10O. Sokolowski1.91911871O. Vincenec1.8011911113LSep 11 · 16:55A. Ruszkiewicz2.2012119113O. Vincenec1.611081171WSep 11 · 15:25S. Krupa2.10811951O. Vincenec1.6711511113WSep 9 · 14:40O. Vincenec1.911561011113K. Schaniel1.80131112762WSep 9 · 13:05O. Vincenec2.10711911133R. Gajda1.67118119112WSep 9 · 11:50O. Vincenec1.831111104113P. Kurek1.8369121192WSep 9 · 10:10O. Vincenec1.831161413113P. Przewlocki1.83911121562WSep 9 · 09:00O. Vincenec2.1012911113P. Gumulinski1.671011991LSep 9 · 07:45P. Przewlocki1.83311811193O. Vincenec1.83117116172
Upcoming Matches
K. Schaniel
Sep 11 · 21:45K. Schaniel1.73A. Ruszkiewicz2.00—Sep 11 · 22:35K. Schaniel2.25L. Oracz1.57—Sep 12 · 24:10K. Schaniel1.67O. Vincenec2.10—Sep 12 · 01:00K. Schaniel1.50G. Sawicki2.50—Sep 12 · 01:45K. Schaniel1.80S. Krupa1.91—Sep 12 · 17:55K. Schaniel—R. Szymik——Sep 12 · 19:30K. Schaniel—A. Szurgot——Sep 12 · 20:45K. Schaniel—P. Gasiorski——Sep 12 · 21:55K. Schaniel—G. Sawicki——Sep 12 · 23:05K. Schaniel—R. Wiza——
O. Vincenec
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