TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114380
Played Sep 11Finished
Oliver Vincenec
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
7111181171210––
Lukasz Oracz
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOliver Vincenec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOliver Vincenec above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 77 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Oliver Vincenec at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Oliver Vincenec 26–24 Lukasz Oracz Lukasz Oracz has won 24 of their 50 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:35What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-24 in 50
Vincenec
Correct
gap of 2 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vincenec 1402 vs Oracz 1529
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 128 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vincenec 80% vs Oracz 40%
Vincenec
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vincenec 80% vs Oracz 50%
Vincenec
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vincenec +1 · Oracz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVincenec 1.83 / Oracz 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Oracz)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13114380
Vincenec1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Oracz1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVincenec5wins
AwayOracz5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVincenec66.7%4 of 6
AwayOracz75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vincenec6Oracz4n = 10Vincenec took 6 of 10
S2Vincenec6Oracz4n = 10Vincenec took 6 of 10
S3Vincenec4Oracz6n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S4Vincenec2Oracz5n = 7Oracz took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVincenecOraczV − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.235.5+0.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVincenecOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime659 / 1452 vs 828 / 148845.4%55.7%659 / 1452 vs 828 / 1488Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczVincenec 1.83/Oracz 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vincenec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 17 · 03:05O. Vincenec—1197121L. Oracz—71111143
LAug 16 · 21:05O. Vincenec—7790L. Oracz—1111113
WAug 16 · 03:05O. Vincenec—1112113L. Oracz—71090
WAug 15 · 21:05O. Vincenec—11811113L. Oracz—811991
LAug 6 · 09:25O. Vincenec—1011991L. Oracz—12911113
WAug 6 · 03:25O. Vincenec—611119113L. Oracz—11771192
WAug 5 · 06:00O. Vincenec—1111113L. Oracz—8980
LJul 23 · 04:50O. Vincenec—114691L. Oracz—81111113
LJul 22 · 21:10O. Vincenec—611991L. Oracz—11511113
WJul 22 · 04:50O. Vincenec—11117113L. Oracz—531151
O. Vincenec10
WSep 11 · 18:10O. Sokolowski1.91911871O. Vincenec1.8011911113LSep 11 · 16:55A. Ruszkiewicz2.2012119113O. Vincenec1.611081171WSep 11 · 15:25S. Krupa2.10811951O. Vincenec1.6711511113WSep 9 · 14:40O. Vincenec1.911561011113K. Schaniel1.80131112762WSep 9 · 13:05O. Vincenec2.10711911133R. Gajda1.67118119112WSep 9 · 11:50O. Vincenec1.831111104113P. Kurek1.8369121192WSep 9 · 10:10O. Vincenec1.831161413113P. Przewlocki1.83911121562WSep 9 · 09:00O. Vincenec2.1012911113P. Gumulinski1.671011991LSep 9 · 07:45P. Przewlocki1.83311811193O. Vincenec1.83117116172WSep 9 · 06:55R. Gajda1.73711211102O. Vincenec2.00116118123
L. Oracz10
LSep 11 · 20:05A. Ruszkiewicz2.50651111113L. Oracz1.5011118962WSep 11 · 17:20S. Krupa1.915370L. Oracz1.801111113LSep 11 · 16:35O. Sokolowski3.25911611113L. Oracz1.3311311792LSep 11 · 15:00K. Schaniel2.3811118113L. Oracz1.53641171LSep 10 · 14:40L. Oracz1.738990W. Urban2.001111113WSep 10 · 13:05L. Oracz1.5041111113P. Kurek2.50114391WSep 10 · 11:50L. Oracz1.301111113M. Sikon3.406890WSep 10 · 10:10L. Oracz1.53111176153R. Idaczyk2.38821111132WSep 10 · 09:00L. Oracz2.101111153K. Slawinski1.6748130LSep 10 · 07:45R. Idaczyk2.6311101011113L. Oracz1.4491212752
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