TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114373
Played Sep 11Finished
Adam Ruszkiewicz
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611511118119116
Lukasz Oracz
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:30 and never touched — 65.5% is still 65.5%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
65.5%
65.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Ruszkiewicz above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 89 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 65.5%
89 points played in total.
H2H Adam Ruszkiewicz 3–8 Lukasz Oracz Adam Ruszkiewicz has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:30What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-8 in 11
Oracz
Wrong
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruszkiewicz 1383 vs Oracz 1512
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruszkiewicz 80% vs Oracz 20%
Ruszkiewicz
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruszkiewicz 50% vs Oracz 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruszkiewicz +1 · Oracz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuszkiewicz 2.50 / Oracz 1.50
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Oracz)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13114373
Ruszkiewicz2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 136 of 341
Down 0–1, comes back22% 40 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 100
Oracz1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 379 of 601
Up 2–0, closes it97% 203 of 210
Up 1–0, closes it83% 296 of 358
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRuszkiewicz3wins
AwayOracz7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuszkiewicz33.3%1 of 3
AwayOracz71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruszkiewicz3Oracz7n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S2Ruszkiewicz3Oracz7n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S3Ruszkiewicz3Oracz7n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S4Ruszkiewicz2Oracz5n = 7Oracz took 5 of 7
S5Ruszkiewicz3Oracz1n = 4Ruszkiewicz took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricRuszkiewiczOraczR − OBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.641.9−6.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuszkiewiczOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime313 / 860 vs 828 / 148936.4%55.6%313 / 860 vs 828 / 1489Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.738.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczRuszkiewicz 2.50/Oracz 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.9%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ruszkiewicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 02:10A. Ruszkiewicz—138611163L. Oracz—1111118142
LAug 28 · 20:05A. Ruszkiewicz—1141081L. Oracz—41112113
LAug 14 · 21:45A. Ruszkiewicz—8890L. Oracz—1111113
LAug 14 · 17:45A. Ruszkiewicz—1051271L. Oracz—121110113
WMay 31 · 13:30A. Ruszkiewicz—10111110113L. Oracz—12791282
LMay 31 · 07:30A. Ruszkiewicz—11114982L. Oracz—681111113
LMar 14 · 02:55A. Ruszkiewicz—8460L. Oracz—1111113
WMar 13 · 20:55A. Ruszkiewicz—4131011113L. Oracz—111112482
LJan 1 · 02:35A. Ruszkiewicz—581131L. Oracz—11119113
LDec 13 · 02:30A. Ruszkiewicz—7670L. Oracz—1111113
A. Ruszkiewicz10
WSep 11 · 18:30S. Krupa1.53761451A. Ruszkiewicz2.38111112113LSep 11 · 17:45K. Schaniel1.73612116113A. Ruszkiewicz2.00111091172WSep 11 · 16:55A. Ruszkiewicz2.2012119113O. Vincenec1.611081171WSep 11 · 15:50A. Ruszkiewicz2.501011911113O. Sokolowski1.5012911862WSep 9 · 20:45W. Pytlas1.4410860A. Ruszkiewicz2.501211113WSep 9 · 19:35A. Ruszkiewicz2.0911119113M. Baron1.61871171LSep 9 · 18:25S. Krupa1.5111711113A. Ruszkiewicz2.29911891LSep 9 · 17:10W. Jozala1.951111113A. Ruszkiewicz1.759050LSep 9 · 15:35M. Koczyba1.331111113A. Ruszkiewicz3.107980LSep 8 · 08:20A. Ruszkiewicz2.15511212102M. Adamus1.601171110123
L. Oracz10
LSep 11 · 19:20O. Vincenec1.8371111123L. Oracz1.831187101WSep 11 · 17:20S. Krupa1.915370L. Oracz1.801111113LSep 11 · 16:35O. Sokolowski3.25911611113L. Oracz1.3311311792LSep 11 · 15:00K. Schaniel2.3811118113L. Oracz1.53641171LSep 10 · 14:40L. Oracz1.738990W. Urban2.001111113WSep 10 · 13:05L. Oracz1.5041111113P. Kurek2.50114391WSep 10 · 11:50L. Oracz1.301111113M. Sikon3.406890WSep 10 · 10:10L. Oracz1.53111176153R. Idaczyk2.38821111132WSep 10 · 09:00L. Oracz2.101111153K. Slawinski1.6748130LSep 10 · 07:45R. Idaczyk2.6311101011113L. Oracz1.4491212752
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