TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114360
Played Sep 11Finished
Sebastian Krupa
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
11138111618––––
Oliver Vincenec
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:26 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeOliver Vincenec to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSebastian Krupa above · Oliver Vincenec below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 16-18
Point 77 set 3, 16-18 — our read held Oliver Vincenec at 64.1%
77 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Krupa 2–13 Oliver Vincenec Sebastian Krupa has won 2 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Vincenec beat Krupa 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:26What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Vincenec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-13 in 15
Vincenec
Correct
gap of 11 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupa 1380 vs Vincenec 1431
Vincenec
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupa 20% vs Vincenec 60%
Vincenec
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupa 60% vs Vincenec 80%
Vincenec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupa -3 · Vincenec -1
Krupa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Vincenec) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupa form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupa 2.10 / Vincenec 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Vincenec)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13114360
Krupa2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 70 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back16% 14 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 50
Vincenec1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 150 of 267
Up 2–0, closes it88% 66 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it75% 108 of 144
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupa0wins
AwayVincenec10wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVincenec leads 10–0, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayVincenec100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupa2Vincenec8n = 10Vincenec took 8 of 10
S2Krupa4Vincenec6n = 10Vincenec took 6 of 10
S3Krupa1Vincenec9n = 10Vincenec took 9 of 10
S4Krupa2Vincenec4n = 6Vincenec took 4 of 6
S5Krupa0Vincenec3n = 3Vincenec took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupaVincenecK − VBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.240.5−4.3per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupaVincenecBasisWin rate · lifetime296 / 592 vs 661 / 145550%45.4%296 / 592 vs 661 / 1455Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VincenecKrupa 2.10/Vincenec 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.4%
Vincenec · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vincenec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 21:20S. Krupa—118160O. Vincenec—1311183
LSep 11 · 15:25S. Krupa—811951O. Vincenec—11511113
LMay 13 · 24:45S. Krupa—91080O. Vincenec—1112113
LMay 12 · 17:10S. Krupa—111091172O. Vincenec—812113113
LMar 18 · 18:10S. Krupa—111155102O. Vincenec—531111123
LJan 18 · 17:00S. Krupa—1591261O. Vincenec—171110113
LDec 26 · 03:45S. Krupa—6990O. Vincenec—1111113
LDec 10 · 19:25S. Krupa—7111071O. Vincenec—11712113
LDec 3 · 19:45S. Krupa—911101172O. Vincenec—117125113
LNov 26 · 18:10S. Krupa—81190O. Vincenec—1113113
S. Krupa10
LSep 11 · 19:40S. Krupa1.67121031362O. Sokolowski2.1010121111113LSep 11 · 18:30S. Krupa1.53761451A. Ruszkiewicz2.38111112113LSep 11 · 17:20S. Krupa1.915370L. Oracz1.801111113WSep 11 · 16:15K. Schaniel1.80761121S. Krupa1.9111114113LSep 11 · 15:25S. Krupa2.10811951O. Vincenec1.6711511113WSep 9 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.70851191S. Krupa2.0011117113WSep 9 · 19:10W. Pytlas1.74911121152S. Krupa1.95116149113WSep 9 · 18:25S. Krupa1.5111711113A. Ruszkiewicz2.29911891WSep 9 · 16:50S. Krupa1.6711814113M. Baron2.005111281WSep 9 · 16:00W. Jozala2.80119571S. Krupa1.3561111113
O. Vincenec10
LSep 11 · 20:30K. Schaniel1.73117915113O. Vincenec2.00811111372WSep 11 · 19:20O. Vincenec1.8371111123L. Oracz1.831187101WSep 11 · 18:10O. Sokolowski1.91911871O. Vincenec1.8011911113LSep 11 · 16:55A. Ruszkiewicz2.2012119113O. Vincenec1.611081171WSep 11 · 15:25S. Krupa2.10811951O. Vincenec1.6711511113WSep 9 · 14:40O. Vincenec1.911561011113K. Schaniel1.80131112762WSep 9 · 13:05O. Vincenec2.10711911133R. Gajda1.67118119112WSep 9 · 11:50O. Vincenec1.831111104113P. Kurek1.8369121192WSep 9 · 10:10O. Vincenec1.831161413113P. Przewlocki1.83911121562WSep 9 · 09:00O. Vincenec2.1012911113P. Gumulinski1.671011991
Upcoming Matches
S. Krupa
O. Vincenec
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.