TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13115002
Played Sep 12Finished
Oliver Vincenec
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
115711911117611
Lukasz Oracz
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOliver Vincenec above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 89 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Oliver Vincenec 28–25 Lukasz Oracz Lukasz Oracz has won 25 of their 53 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Vincenec beat Oracz 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:55What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-25 in 53
Vincenec
Wrong
gap of 3 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vincenec 1416 vs Oracz 1489
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vincenec 60% vs Oracz 40%
Vincenec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vincenec 70% vs Oracz 40%
Vincenec
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vincenec +1 · Oracz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVincenec 2.10 / Oracz 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Oracz)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13115002
Vincenec2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 200 of 499
Down 0–1, comes back25% 74 of 297
Down 0–2, comes back9% 13 of 148
Oracz1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 379 of 601
Up 2–0, closes it97% 203 of 210
Up 1–0, closes it83% 296 of 358
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVincenec6wins
AwayOracz4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVincenec leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVincenec75%3 of 4
AwayOracz50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vincenec4Oracz6n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S2Vincenec7Oracz3n = 10Vincenec took 7 of 10
S3Vincenec6Oracz4n = 10Vincenec took 6 of 10
S4Vincenec2Oracz5n = 7Oracz took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVincenecOraczV − OBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.236.9+1.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVincenecOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime662 / 1458 vs 831 / 149445.4%55.6%662 / 1458 vs 831 / 1494Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczVincenec 2.10/Oracz 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 19:20O. Vincenec—71111123L. Oracz—1187101
LAug 27 · 11:25O. Vincenec—811781L. Oracz—11811113
WAug 27 · 05:15O. Vincenec—811119113L. Oracz—11561172
LAug 17 · 03:05O. Vincenec—1197121L. Oracz—71111143
LAug 16 · 21:05O. Vincenec—7790L. Oracz—1111113
WAug 16 · 03:05O. Vincenec—1112113L. Oracz—71090
WAug 15 · 21:05O. Vincenec—11811113L. Oracz—811991
LAug 6 · 09:25O. Vincenec—1011991L. Oracz—12911113
WAug 6 · 03:25O. Vincenec—611119113L. Oracz—11771192
WAug 5 · 06:00O. Vincenec—1111113L. Oracz—8980
O. Vincenec10
WSep 12 · 24:10K. Schaniel1.67811311102O. Vincenec2.10118116123LSep 11 · 22:55A. Ruszkiewicz2.25111177113O. Vincenec1.5774111192WSep 11 · 21:20S. Krupa2.10118160O. Vincenec1.671311183LSep 11 · 20:30K. Schaniel1.73117915113O. Vincenec2.00811111372WSep 11 · 19:20O. Vincenec1.8371111123L. Oracz1.831187101WSep 11 · 18:10O. Sokolowski1.91911871O. Vincenec1.8011911113LSep 11 · 16:55A. Ruszkiewicz2.2012119113O. Vincenec1.611081171WSep 11 · 15:25S. Krupa2.10811951O. Vincenec1.6711511113WSep 9 · 14:40O. Vincenec1.911561011113K. Schaniel1.80131112762WSep 9 · 13:05O. Vincenec2.10711911133R. Gajda1.67118119112
L. Oracz10
WSep 11 · 23:20S. Krupa2.208760L. Oracz1.611111113LSep 11 · 22:35K. Schaniel2.25114911113L. Oracz1.5771111682WSep 11 · 21:00G. Sawicki3.0013770L. Oracz1.361511113LSep 11 · 19:20O. Vincenec1.8371111123L. Oracz1.831187101WSep 11 · 17:20S. Krupa1.915370L. Oracz1.801111113LSep 11 · 16:35O. Sokolowski3.25911611113L. Oracz1.3311311792LSep 11 · 15:00K. Schaniel2.3811118113L. Oracz1.53641171LSep 10 · 14:40L. Oracz1.738990W. Urban2.001111113WSep 10 · 13:05L. Oracz1.5041111113P. Kurek2.50114391WSep 10 · 11:50L. Oracz1.301111113M. Sikon3.406890
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