TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114786
Played Sep 11Finished
Krzysztof Schaniel
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117411911116118
Lukasz Oracz
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:07 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKrzysztof Schaniel above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 89 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 61.9%
89 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Schaniel 16–19 Lukasz Oracz Krzysztof Schaniel has won 16 of their 35 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Schaniel beat Oracz 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:07What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-19 in 35
Oracz
Wrong
gap of 3 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schaniel 1409 vs Oracz 1503
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schaniel 60% vs Oracz 40%
Schaniel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schaniel 50% vs Oracz 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Schaniel -1 · Oracz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchaniel 2.25 / Oracz 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Oracz)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13114786
Schaniel2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 187 of 462
Down 0–1, comes back27% 68 of 253
Down 0–2, comes back10% 14 of 141
Oracz1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 379 of 601
Up 2–0, closes it97% 203 of 210
Up 1–0, closes it83% 296 of 358
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSchaniel4wins
AwayOracz6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchanieln = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayOracz75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schaniel2Oracz8n = 10Oracz took 8 of 10
S2Schaniel3Oracz7n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S3Schaniel6Oracz4n = 10Schaniel took 6 of 10
S4Schaniel4Oracz4n = 8split evenly
S5Schaniel2Oracz1n = 3Schaniel took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSchanielOraczS − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.838.8−3.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchanielOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime870 / 1744 vs 829 / 149149.9%55.6%870 / 1744 vs 829 / 1491Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczSchaniel 2.25/Oracz 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Schaniel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 27 · 13:30K. Schaniel—712101142L. Oracz—1110126113
WAug 27 · 07:20K. Schaniel—51111113L. Oracz—117831
WAug 20 · 09:25K. Schaniel—114114113L. Oracz—61151152
LAug 20 · 03:25K. Schaniel—981171L. Oracz—11119113
LJul 17 · 09:25K. Schaniel—771181L. Oracz—11117113
LJul 17 · 03:25K. Schaniel—512461L. Oracz—111011113
LJul 6 · 04:20K. Schaniel—68110L. Oracz—1111133
WJul 5 · 18:45K. Schaniel—1091111113L. Oracz—12118962
WJun 16 · 16:40K. Schaniel—11811113L. Oracz—911481
LJun 16 · 10:40K. Schaniel—9670L. Oracz—1111113
K. Schaniel10
LSep 11 · 21:45A. Ruszkiewicz2.0011118123K. Schaniel1.733711101WSep 11 · 20:30K. Schaniel1.73117915113O. Vincenec2.00811111372WSep 11 · 18:55K. Schaniel1.8011117113O. Sokolowski1.91791191WSep 11 · 17:45K. Schaniel1.73612116113A. Ruszkiewicz2.00111091172LSep 11 · 16:15K. Schaniel1.80761121S. Krupa1.9111114113WSep 11 · 15:00K. Schaniel2.3811118113L. Oracz1.53641171LSep 9 · 14:40O. Vincenec1.911561011113K. Schaniel1.80131112762LSep 9 · 13:30K. Schaniel2.2591111792P. Gumulinski1.57119911113WSep 9 · 12:15R. Gajda1.80111451192K. Schaniel1.917121113113LSep 9 · 11:00P. Kurek1.4411117113K. Schaniel2.63861181
L. Oracz10
WSep 11 · 21:00G. Sawicki3.0013770L. Oracz1.361511113LSep 11 · 20:05A. Ruszkiewicz2.50651111113L. Oracz1.5011118962LSep 11 · 19:20O. Vincenec1.8371111123L. Oracz1.831187101WSep 11 · 17:20S. Krupa1.915370L. Oracz1.801111113LSep 11 · 16:35O. Sokolowski3.25911611113L. Oracz1.3311311792LSep 11 · 15:00K. Schaniel2.3811118113L. Oracz1.53641171LSep 10 · 14:40L. Oracz1.738990W. Urban2.001111113WSep 10 · 13:05L. Oracz1.5041111113P. Kurek2.50114391WSep 10 · 11:50L. Oracz1.301111113M. Sikon3.406890WSep 10 · 10:10L. Oracz1.53111176153R. Idaczyk2.38821111132
Upcoming Matches
K. Schaniel2 of 10 neutral
Sep 12 · 24:10K. Schaniel1.67O. Vincenec2.10—Sep 12 · 01:00K. Schaniel1.44G. Sawicki2.63—Sep 12 · 01:45K. Schaniel1.80S. Krupa1.91—Sep 12 · 17:55K. Schaniel—R. Szymik——Sep 12 · 19:30K. Schaniel—A. Szurgot——Sep 12 · 20:45K. Schaniel—P. Gasiorski——Sep 12 · 21:55K. Schaniel—G. Sawicki——Sep 12 · 23:05K. Schaniel—R. Wiza——Sep 12 · 23:55K. Schaniel—R. Szymik——Sep 13 · 01:30K. Schaniel—A. Szurgot——
L. Oracz
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.