TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114355
Played Sep 11Finished
Adam Ruszkiewicz
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1131178111210––
Krzysztof Schaniel
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Ruszkiewicz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Ruszkiewicz above · Krzysztof Schaniel below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 73 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Adam Ruszkiewicz at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Adam Ruszkiewicz 6–11 Krzysztof Schaniel Adam Ruszkiewicz has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Schaniel beat Ruszkiewicz 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:24What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Schaniel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-11 in 17
Schaniel
Wrong
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruszkiewicz 1398 vs Schaniel 1422
Schaniel
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruszkiewicz 80% vs Schaniel 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruszkiewicz 60% vs Schaniel 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruszkiewicz +2 · Schaniel +3
Schaniel
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Schaniel) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schaniel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuszkiewicz 2.00 / Schaniel 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Schaniel)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13114355
Ruszkiewicz2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 136 of 341
Down 0–1, comes back22% 40 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 100
Schaniel1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 213 of 361
Up 2–0, closes it90% 102 of 114
Up 1–0, closes it77% 160 of 208
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRuszkiewicz4wins
AwaySchaniel6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSchaniel leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuszkiewicz50%3 of 6
AwaySchaniel100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruszkiewicz6Schaniel3n = 9Ruszkiewicz took 6 of 9
S2Ruszkiewicz5Schaniel4n = 9Ruszkiewicz took 5 of 9
S3Ruszkiewicz4Schaniel5n = 9Schaniel took 5 of 9
S4Ruszkiewicz4Schaniel4n = 8split evenly
S5Ruszkiewicz1Schaniel5n = 6Schaniel took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRuszkiewiczSchanielR − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match41.844.0−2.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuszkiewiczSchanielBasisWin rate · lifetime314 / 861 vs 870 / 174436.5%49.9%314 / 861 vs 870 / 1744Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.839.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchanielRuszkiewicz 2.00/Schaniel 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Schaniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ruszkiewicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LJul 19 · 11:50A. Ruszkiewicz—8101111122K. Schaniel—111276143
WJul 19 · 03:50A. Ruszkiewicz—1211113K. Schaniel—10990
LNov 28 · 05:00A. Ruszkiewicz—91151172K. Schaniel—119119113
WOct 30 · 05:50A. Ruszkiewicz—11129113K. Schaniel—5101171
WOct 15 · 20:45A. Ruszkiewicz—121198113K. Schaniel—106111172
LSep 3 · 16:50A. Ruszkiewicz—13711342K. Schaniel—1111711113
LAug 12 · 21:10A. Ruszkiewicz—91111792K. Schaniel—118911113
LAug 7 · 23:10A. Ruszkiewicz—115471K. Schaniel—51111113
LAug 6 · 01:35A. Ruszkiewicz—12651172K. Schaniel—1011117113
A. Ruszkiewicz10
WSep 11 · 20:05A. Ruszkiewicz2.50651111113L. Oracz1.5011118962WSep 11 · 18:30S. Krupa1.53761451A. Ruszkiewicz2.38111112113LSep 11 · 17:45K. Schaniel1.73612116113A. Ruszkiewicz2.00111091172WSep 11 · 16:55A. Ruszkiewicz2.2012119113O. Vincenec1.611081171WSep 11 · 15:50A. Ruszkiewicz2.501011911113O. Sokolowski1.5012911862WSep 9 · 20:45W. Pytlas1.4410860A. Ruszkiewicz2.501211113WSep 9 · 19:35A. Ruszkiewicz2.0911119113M. Baron1.61871171LSep 9 · 18:25S. Krupa1.5111711113A. Ruszkiewicz2.29911891LSep 9 · 17:10W. Jozala1.951111113A. Ruszkiewicz1.759050LSep 9 · 15:35M. Koczyba1.331111113A. Ruszkiewicz3.107980
K. Schaniel10
WSep 11 · 22:35K. Schaniel2.25114911113L. Oracz1.5771111682WSep 11 · 20:30K. Schaniel1.73117915113O. Vincenec2.00811111372WSep 11 · 18:55K. Schaniel1.8011117113O. Sokolowski1.91791191WSep 11 · 17:45K. Schaniel1.73612116113A. Ruszkiewicz2.00111091172LSep 11 · 16:15K. Schaniel1.80761121S. Krupa1.9111114113WSep 11 · 15:00K. Schaniel2.3811118113L. Oracz1.53641171LSep 9 · 14:40O. Vincenec1.911561011113K. Schaniel1.80131112762LSep 9 · 13:30K. Schaniel2.2591111792P. Gumulinski1.57119911113WSep 9 · 12:15R. Gajda1.80111451192K. Schaniel1.917121113113LSep 9 · 11:00P. Kurek1.4411117113K. Schaniel2.63861181
Upcoming Matches
A. Ruszkiewicz
K. Schaniel2 of 10 neutral
Sep 12 · 24:10K. Schaniel1.67O. Vincenec2.10—Sep 12 · 01:00K. Schaniel1.44G. Sawicki2.63—Sep 12 · 01:45K. Schaniel1.80S. Krupa1.91—Sep 12 · 17:55K. Schaniel—R. Szymik——Sep 12 · 19:30K. Schaniel—A. Szurgot——Sep 12 · 20:45K. Schaniel—P. Gasiorski——Sep 12 · 21:55K. Schaniel—G. Sawicki——Sep 12 · 23:05K. Schaniel—R. Wiza——Sep 12 · 23:55K. Schaniel—R. Szymik——Sep 13 · 01:30K. Schaniel—A. Szurgot——
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