TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13128239
Played Sep 14Finished
Kacper Adamus
Home
1.82
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117117811116––
Grzegorz Marud
Away
1.88
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Adamus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
117117811116––
H2H Kacper Adamus 9–8 Grzegorz Marud Grzegorz Marud has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:11What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.82 (51%)
Adamus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-8 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1479 vs Marud 1500
Marud
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 60% vs Marud 80%
Marud
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 80% vs Marud 60%
Adamus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +3 · Marud +2
Adamus
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adamus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marud form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.82 / Marud 1.88
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Adamus)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13128239
Adamus1.82
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 358 of 580
Up 2–0, closes it97% 194 of 200
Up 1–0, closes it79% 286 of 361
Marud1.88
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 122 of 301
Down 0–1, comes back22% 36 of 165
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus5wins
AwayMarud5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus100%3 of 3
AwayMarud66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus3Marud6n = 9Marud took 6 of 9
S2Adamus5Marud4n = 9Adamus took 5 of 9
S3Adamus4Marud5n = 9Marud took 5 of 9
S4Adamus6Marud2n = 8Adamus took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusMarudA − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match39.639.4+0.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusMarudBasisWin rate · lifetime942 / 1740 vs 642 / 136254.1%47.1%942 / 1740 vs 642 / 1362Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.82/Marud 1.88
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 7 · 19:30K. Adamus4211119113G. Marud27741151
WAug 4 · 03:05K. Adamus4111118113G. Marud37981191
WAug 3 · 21:05K. Adamus44511611113G. Marud4111911642
LJul 21 · 24:10K. Adamus5798201192G. Marud601111189113
LJul 20 · 20:20K. Adamus33671191G. Marud4211119113
LJul 14 · 04:20K. Adamus37981641G. Marud47111114113
WJul 13 · 18:45K. Adamus4291111113G. Marud36119791
WJul 29 · 24:45K. Adamus4011117113G. Marud32581181
LJul 28 · 22:20K. Adamus208750G. Marud331111113
K. Adamus10
WSep 15 · 05:05K. Adamus2.0011611113S. Szostok1.71711791LSep 15 · 03:30K. Adamus2.008480O. Jadach1.671111113WSep 15 · 01:50K. Adamus1.171111113I. Szymanski4.058870LSep 15 · 24:30K. Adamus1.8079100K. Schaniel1.851111123LSep 14 · 23:30K. Adamus1.70116871G. Marud1.9671111113LSep 14 · 22:20K. Schaniel2.1011117113K. Adamus1.60971171WSep 14 · 21:30O. Jadach1.85791111142K. Adamus1.85111197163LSep 14 · 20:45K. Adamus2.0011581182S. Szostok1.71911118113WSep 14 · 18:20I. Szymanski4.256420K. Adamus1.161111113WSep 12 · 08:20R. Skotniczny1.839990K. Adamus1.811111113
G. Marud10
LSep 15 · 21:45K. Schaniel1.8011811113G. Marud1.91311561WSep 15 · 20:30G. Marud2.1011117133J. Pruszkowski1.679711111WSep 15 · 18:55G. Marud2.1011711113P. Adamus1.67411891WSep 15 · 17:45G. Marud1.83111211113K. Schaniel1.83714691LSep 15 · 16:15G. Marud2.10118351M. Koczyba1.6751111113LSep 15 · 15:00G. Marud1.30116571G. Jurowicz3.4031111113WSep 15 · 04:40I. Szymanski3.652850G. Marud1.211111113WSep 15 · 03:55S. Szostok2.17771211122G. Marud1.621111105143WSep 15 · 01:30K. Schaniel1.9711128942G. Marud1.689101111113WSep 14 · 23:30K. Adamus1.70116871G. Marud1.9671111113
Upcoming Matches
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G. Marud
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