TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13130219
Played Sep 14Finished
Kacper Adamus
Home
1.70
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117611811711––
Grzegorz Marud
Away
1.96
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Adamus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
117611811711––
H2H Kacper Adamus 9–8 Grzegorz Marud Grzegorz Marud has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Adamus beat Marud 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:39What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-8 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1478 vs Marud 1468
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 60% vs Marud 40%
Adamus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 60% vs Marud 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus -1 · Marud +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adamus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marud form (40%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.70 / Marud 1.96
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Adamus)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13130219
Adamus1.70
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 358 of 580
Up 2–0, closes it97% 194 of 200
Up 1–0, closes it79% 286 of 361
Marud1.96
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog41% won 122 of 301
Down 0–1, comes back22% 36 of 165
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus5wins
AwayMarud5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus100%3 of 3
AwayMarud66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus3Marud6n = 9Marud took 6 of 9
S2Adamus5Marud4n = 9Adamus took 5 of 9
S3Adamus4Marud5n = 9Marud took 5 of 9
S4Adamus6Marud2n = 8Adamus took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusMarudA − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match39.639.4+0.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusMarudBasisWin rate · lifetime944 / 1744 vs 642 / 136354.1%47.1%944 / 1744 vs 642 / 1363Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.70/Marud 1.96
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 7 · 19:30K. Adamus4211119113G. Marud27741151
WAug 4 · 03:05K. Adamus4111118113G. Marud37981191
WAug 3 · 21:05K. Adamus44511611113G. Marud4111911642
LJul 21 · 24:10K. Adamus5798201192G. Marud601111189113
LJul 20 · 20:20K. Adamus33671191G. Marud4211119113
LJul 14 · 04:20K. Adamus37981641G. Marud47111114113
WJul 13 · 18:45K. Adamus4291111113G. Marud36119791
WJul 29 · 24:45K. Adamus4011117113G. Marud32581181
LJul 28 · 22:20K. Adamus208750G. Marud331111113
K. Adamus10
WSep 15 · 01:50K. Adamus1.171111113I. Szymanski4.058870LSep 15 · 24:30K. Adamus1.8079100K. Schaniel1.851111123LSep 14 · 22:20K. Schaniel2.1011117113K. Adamus1.60971171WSep 14 · 21:30O. Jadach1.85791111142K. Adamus1.85111197163LSep 14 · 20:45K. Adamus2.0011581182S. Szostok1.71911118113WSep 14 · 19:10K. Adamus1.8211118113G. Marud1.88771161WSep 14 · 18:20I. Szymanski4.256420K. Adamus1.161111113WSep 12 · 08:20R. Skotniczny1.839990K. Adamus1.811111113WSep 12 · 07:35O. Sokolowski2.4612711652K. Adamus1.441011711113LSep 12 · 05:35O. Sokolowski3.10961211113K. Adamus1.30111110972
G. Marud10
WSep 15 · 01:30K. Schaniel1.9711128942G. Marud1.689101111113LSep 15 · 24:50O. Jadach1.5712211113G. Marud2.161011701WSep 14 · 22:40I. Szymanski3.65211491G. Marud1.2111511113LSep 14 · 21:55S. Szostok1.58511811113G. Marud2.1411811642LSep 14 · 19:55K. Schaniel2.009111411113G. Marud1.7111216382LSep 14 · 19:10K. Adamus1.8211118113G. Marud1.88771161WSep 14 · 17:30O. Jadach1.5721190G. Marud2.151113113WSep 14 · 04:40G. Marud1.711111133O. Vincenec2.0084110LSep 14 · 03:05M. Adamus1.80811811113G. Marud1.8511311692WSep 14 · 02:20A. Ruszkiewicz2.457990G. Marud1.451111113
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