TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13118273
Played Sep 12Finished
Rafal Skotniczny
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911911911––––
Kacper Adamus
Away
1.81
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:37 and never touched — 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timeKacper Adamus to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
60 points played in total.
Set by set
911911911––––
H2H Rafal Skotniczny 34–44 Kacper Adamus Rafal Skotniczny has won 34 of their 78 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:37What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.81 (50%)
Adamus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-44 in 78
Adamus
Correct
gap of 10 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotniczny 1436 vs Adamus 1449
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotniczny 40% vs Adamus 60%
Adamus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotniczny 30% vs Adamus 70%
Adamus
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotniczny +1 · Adamus +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skotniczny form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotniczny 1.83 / Adamus 1.81
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Adamus)+3.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13118273
Skotniczny1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 66 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back27% 20 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Adamus1.81
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 375 of 609
Up 2–0, closes it98% 204 of 209
Up 1–0, closes it80% 299 of 376
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkotniczny5wins
AwayAdamus5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotniczny71.4%5 of 7
AwayAdamus100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotniczny7Adamus3n = 10Skotniczny took 7 of 10
S2Skotniczny5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S3Skotniczny6Adamus4n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S4Skotniczny0Adamus5n = 5Adamus took 5 of 5
S5Skotniczny2Adamus2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkotnicznyAdamusS − ABasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.737.9+0.8per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicznyAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime592 / 1024 vs 940 / 173857.8%54.1%592 / 1024 vs 940 / 1738Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusSkotniczny 1.83/Adamus 1.81
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 14:20R. Skotniczny—1112113K. Adamus—11090
LAug 26 · 06:20R. Skotniczny—1491271K. Adamus—121114113
WAug 18 · 11:55R. Skotniczny—1111113K. Adamus—8970
LJul 1 · 12:20R. Skotniczny—8890K. Adamus—1111113
LJul 1 · 08:20R. Skotniczny—10880K. Adamus—1211113
WJun 24 · 12:20R. Skotniczny—1513133K. Adamus—1311110
WJun 24 · 08:20R. Skotniczny—116116113K. Adamus—41181192
LJun 23 · 12:20R. Skotniczny—61111972K. Adamus—116711113
WJun 23 · 08:20R. Skotniczny—1110119113K. Adamus—81281152
LJun 3 · 15:30R. Skotniczny—111167102K. Adamus—991111123
R. Skotniczny10
WSep 12 · 06:45O. Sokolowski3.105870R. Skotniczny1.331111113LSep 12 · 06:00W. Pytlas2.0591111113R. Skotniczny1.64115551LSep 12 · 05:10R. Skotniczny1.809570O. Sokolowski1.851111113LSep 12 · 04:00R. Skotniczny1.38413441P. Mecik2.65111111113WSep 11 · 17:05R. Skotniczny1.601111113P. Kurek2.109970LSep 11 · 15:30R. Skotniczny1.85711110S. Szostok1.801113133WSep 11 · 14:20R. Skotniczny1.4211511113P. Mecik2.60711941LSep 11 · 12:45R. Skotniczny1.8011311612J. Pruszkowski1.85811911113LSep 11 · 11:30R. Skotniczny1.921110101182G. Wichowski1.72912127113LSep 11 · 10:20J. Pruszkowski1.95513911133R. Skotniczny1.771111117112
K. Adamus10
WSep 12 · 07:35O. Sokolowski2.4612711652K. Adamus1.441011711113LSep 12 · 05:35O. Sokolowski3.10961211113K. Adamus1.30111110972LSep 12 · 04:50P. Mecik2.25911118113K. Adamus1.5511881152WSep 12 · 03:10W. Pytlas2.05711139182K. Adamus1.681131111203WSep 10 · 16:20W. Glanowski2.6041080K. Adamus1.411112113WSep 10 · 15:30K. Hetnar1.85611911152K. Adamus1.80119114173WSep 10 · 14:45K. Adamus1.8291111113O. Jadach1.88117951WSep 10 · 13:10K. Adamus1.5013911113K. Jablonski2.311111761LSep 10 · 12:20J. Pelka2.36111212113K. Adamus1.487141041WSep 10 · 11:05K. Adamus1.851111113O. Jadach1.858790
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