TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13112752
Played Sep 11Finished
Rafal Skotniczny
Home
1.42
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117511119114––
Patryk Mecik
Away
2.60
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:33 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
117511119114––
H2H Rafal Skotniczny 32–19 Patryk Mecik Patryk Mecik has won 19 of their 51 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Skotniczny beat Mecik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:33What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.42 (65%)
Skotniczny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-19 in 51
Skotniczny
Correct
gap of 13 in 51, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotniczny 1481 vs Mecik 1234
Skotniczny
Correct
both rated, 247 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotniczny 40% vs Mecik 20%
Skotniczny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotniczny 70% vs Mecik 20%
Skotniczny
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotniczny -3 · Mecik -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Skotniczny) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mecik form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotniczny 1.42 / Mecik 2.60
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Skotniczny)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13112752
Skotniczny1.42
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 214 of 336
Up 2–0, closes it96% 113 of 118
Up 1–0, closes it83% 163 of 197
Mecik2.60
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 104 of 278
Down 0–1, comes back19% 30 of 160
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkotniczny8wins
AwayMecik2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSkotniczny leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotniczny100%6 of 6
AwayMecik50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotniczny6Mecik4n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S2Skotniczny7Mecik3n = 10Skotniczny took 7 of 10
S3Skotniczny9Mecik1n = 10Skotniczny took 9 of 10
S4Skotniczny4Mecik1n = 5Skotniczny took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkotnicznyMecikS − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.029.4+6.6per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicznyMecikBasisWin rate · lifetime589 / 1017 vs 325 / 81757.9%39.8%589 / 1017 vs 325 / 817Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznySkotniczny 1.42/Mecik 2.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.9%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skotniczny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 06:20R. Skotniczny—11711113P. Mecik—711911
WSep 7 · 14:20R. Skotniczny—11811113P. Mecik—711581
WSep 7 · 06:20R. Skotniczny—1211113P. Mecik—10670
WJul 13 · 11:55R. Skotniczny—1211113P. Mecik—10980
LJul 13 · 05:55R. Skotniczny—711115102P. Mecik—119711123
WJun 29 · 11:30R. Skotniczny—1111113P. Mecik—7670
LJun 29 · 07:10R. Skotniczny—63100P. Mecik—1111123
WJun 16 · 08:20R. Skotniczny—51111113P. Mecik—115121
WJun 15 · 17:05R. Skotniczny—71111113P. Mecik—117881
WJun 15 · 08:45R. Skotniczny—1511113P. Mecik—13780
R. Skotniczny10
LSep 11 · 12:45R. Skotniczny1.8011311612J. Pruszkowski1.85811911113LSep 11 · 11:30R. Skotniczny1.921110101182G. Wichowski1.72912127113LSep 11 · 10:20J. Pruszkowski1.95513911133R. Skotniczny1.771111117112WSep 11 · 09:30S. Szostok1.866101131R. Skotniczny1.8011124113WSep 11 · 08:45R. Skotniczny1.6091111113P. Kurek2.10117891WSep 11 · 07:10R. Skotniczny1.921111113G. Wichowski1.727660WSep 11 · 06:20P. Mecik2.75711911R. Skotniczny1.3611711113WSep 8 · 08:00K. Hetnar1.804770R. Skotniczny1.911111113WSep 8 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek2.70159441R. Skotniczny1.37131111113WSep 8 · 06:25R. Skotniczny1.1981111113M. Cesarz3.80116541
P. Mecik10
LSep 11 · 15:05J. Pruszkowski1.32711311123P. Mecik2.90114116102LSep 11 · 13:30P. Mecik2.267860P. Kurek1.521111113LSep 11 · 12:20P. Mecik2.7510911111S. Szostok1.3612115133LSep 11 · 10:40P. Mecik2.90113951G. Wichowski1.3271111113LSep 11 · 09:05J. Pruszkowski1.35911911113P. Mecik2.9011811762WSep 11 · 08:20S. Szostok1.38711111152P. Mecik2.65119139113LSep 11 · 07:30P. Mecik2.1511361192P. Kurek1.60711118113LSep 11 · 06:20P. Mecik2.75711911R. Skotniczny1.3611711113LSep 7 · 17:05P. Mecik2.90115101192S. Szostok1.35911125113WSep 7 · 15:30P. Mecik4.1013116113G. Wichowski1.181191191
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