TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13115888
Played Sep 12Finished
Rafal Skotniczny
Home
1.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4111311411411––
Patryk Mecik
Away
2.65
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:17 and never touched — 68.8% is still 68.8%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
68.8%
68.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
4111311411411––
H2H Rafal Skotniczny 33–19 Patryk Mecik Patryk Mecik has won 19 of their 52 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 14h before this match
Skotniczny beat Mecik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:17What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.38 (66%)
Skotniczny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-19 in 52
Skotniczny
Wrong
gap of 14 in 52, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotniczny 1481 vs Mecik 1221
Skotniczny
Wrong
both rated, 260 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotniczny 40% vs Mecik 0%
Skotniczny
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotniczny 60% vs Mecik 10%
Skotniczny
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotniczny +1 · Mecik -5
Mecik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Skotniczny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mecik form (0%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotniczny 1.38 / Mecik 2.65
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Skotniczny)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13115888
Skotniczny1.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite64% won 214 of 336
Up 2–0, closes it96% 113 of 118
Up 1–0, closes it83% 163 of 197
Mecik2.65
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 104 of 278
Down 0–1, comes back19% 30 of 160
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkotniczny8wins
AwayMecik2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSkotniczny leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotniczny100%6 of 6
AwayMecik50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotniczny6Mecik4n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S2Skotniczny6Mecik4n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S3Skotniczny9Mecik1n = 10Skotniczny took 9 of 10
S4Skotniczny5Mecik1n = 6Skotniczny took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkotnicznyMecikS − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.129.7+6.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicznyMecikBasisWin rate · lifetime591 / 1020 vs 325 / 81957.9%39.7%591 / 1020 vs 325 / 819Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznySkotniczny 1.38/Mecik 2.65
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mecik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 14:20R. Skotniczny—11511113P. Mecik—711941
WSep 11 · 06:20R. Skotniczny—11711113P. Mecik—711911
WSep 7 · 14:20R. Skotniczny—11811113P. Mecik—711581
WSep 7 · 06:20R. Skotniczny—1211113P. Mecik—10670
WJul 13 · 11:55R. Skotniczny—1211113P. Mecik—10980
LJul 13 · 05:55R. Skotniczny—711115102P. Mecik—119711123
WJun 29 · 11:30R. Skotniczny—1111113P. Mecik—7670
LJun 29 · 07:10R. Skotniczny—63100P. Mecik—1111123
WJun 16 · 08:20R. Skotniczny—51111113P. Mecik—115121
WJun 15 · 17:05R. Skotniczny—71111113P. Mecik—117881
R. Skotniczny10
WSep 11 · 17:05R. Skotniczny1.601111113P. Kurek2.109970LSep 11 · 15:30R. Skotniczny1.85711110S. Szostok1.801113133WSep 11 · 14:20R. Skotniczny1.4211511113P. Mecik2.60711941LSep 11 · 12:45R. Skotniczny1.8011311612J. Pruszkowski1.85811911113LSep 11 · 11:30R. Skotniczny1.921110101182G. Wichowski1.72912127113LSep 11 · 10:20J. Pruszkowski1.95513911133R. Skotniczny1.771111117112WSep 11 · 09:30S. Szostok1.866101131R. Skotniczny1.8011124113WSep 11 · 08:45R. Skotniczny1.6091111113P. Kurek2.10117891WSep 11 · 07:10R. Skotniczny1.921111113G. Wichowski1.727660WSep 11 · 06:20P. Mecik2.75711911R. Skotniczny1.3611711113
P. Mecik10
LSep 11 · 16:40P. Mecik2.90811451G. Wichowski1.3211811113LSep 11 · 15:05J. Pruszkowski1.32711311123P. Mecik2.90114116102LSep 11 · 14:20R. Skotniczny1.4211511113P. Mecik2.60711941LSep 11 · 13:30P. Mecik2.267860P. Kurek1.521111113LSep 11 · 12:20P. Mecik2.7510911111S. Szostok1.3612115133LSep 11 · 10:40P. Mecik2.90113951G. Wichowski1.3271111113LSep 11 · 09:05J. Pruszkowski1.35911911113P. Mecik2.9011811762WSep 11 · 08:20S. Szostok1.38711111152P. Mecik2.65119139113LSep 11 · 07:30P. Mecik2.1511361192P. Kurek1.60711118113LSep 11 · 06:20P. Mecik2.75711911R. Skotniczny1.3611711113
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