TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13130207
Played Sep 15Finished
Krzysztof Schaniel
Home
1.97
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1191210811911411
Grzegorz Marud
Away
1.68
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Marud to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
96 points played in total.
Set by set
1191210811911411
H2H Krzysztof Schaniel 95–102 Grzegorz Marud Krzysztof Schaniel has won 95 of their 197 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Schaniel beat Marud 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:34What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.68 (54%)
Marud
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
95-102 in 197
Marud
Correct
gap of 7 in 197, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schaniel 1418 vs Marud 1481
Marud
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schaniel 60% vs Marud 40%
Schaniel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schaniel 50% vs Marud 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Schaniel +2 · Marud +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Marud) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marud form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchaniel 1.97 / Marud 1.68
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Marud)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13130207
Schaniel1.97
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 177 of 422
Down 0–1, comes back28% 65 of 229
Down 0–2, comes back11% 14 of 124
Marud1.68
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite55% won 123 of 225
Up 2–0, closes it86% 75 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it71% 100 of 141
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSchaniel5wins
AwayMarud5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchaniel75%3 of 4
AwayMarud66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schaniel4Marud6n = 10Marud took 6 of 10
S2Schaniel8Marud2n = 10Schaniel took 8 of 10
S3Schaniel3Marud7n = 10Marud took 7 of 10
S4Schaniel3Marud6n = 9Marud took 6 of 9
S5Schaniel3Marud1n = 4Schaniel took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSchanielMarudS − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.340.9−0.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchanielMarudBasisWin rate · lifetime875 / 1753 vs 643 / 136249.9%47.2%875 / 1753 vs 643 / 1362Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarudSchaniel 1.97/Marud 1.68
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.8%
Marud · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 19:55K. Schaniel569111411113G. Marud4011216382
LSep 1 · 21:20K. Schaniel26411651G. Marud4011711113
WSep 1 · 15:25K. Schaniel45111175113G. Marud4486111182
WAug 25 · 24:10K. Schaniel551311119113G. Marud50117131182
LAug 24 · 20:20K. Schaniel34881261G. Marud43111110113
WAug 24 · 24:20K. Schaniel4071111113G. Marud36117991
LAug 23 · 20:20K. Schaniel28119351G. Marud4291111113
LAug 4 · 22:35K. Schaniel539111011122G. Marud51119125143
WAug 4 · 15:00K. Schaniel331111113G. Marud215880
LJul 27 · 03:30K. Schaniel337111051G. Marud4211812113
K. Schaniel10
WSep 16 · 02:10K. Schaniel2.001111113G. Jurowicz1.735690LSep 16 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.73511119113K. Schaniel2.0011781152WSep 15 · 23:45P. Adamus1.6111121110102K. Schaniel2.20414912123WSep 15 · 22:55K. Schaniel2.7571112113J. Pruszkowski1.401151071WSep 15 · 21:45K. Schaniel1.8011811113G. Marud1.91311561LSep 15 · 20:05K. Schaniel1.6111116672G. Jurowicz2.20751111113LSep 15 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.6111611113K. Schaniel2.20211961LSep 15 · 17:45G. Marud1.83111211113K. Schaniel1.83714691LSep 15 · 16:55K. Schaniel2.5011750J. Pruszkowski1.501311113LSep 15 · 15:50K. Schaniel2.2079111192P. Adamus1.61111176113
G. Marud10
LSep 16 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.7351111123G. Marud2.001188101WSep 16 · 01:00P. Adamus1.6791220G. Marud2.101114113WSep 16 · 24:10G. Marud2.501111113J. Pruszkowski1.503880WSep 15 · 22:35G. Marud1.4011117113G. Jurowicz2.75741111LSep 15 · 21:45K. Schaniel1.8011811113G. Marud1.91311561WSep 15 · 20:30G. Marud2.1011117133J. Pruszkowski1.679711111WSep 15 · 18:55G. Marud2.1011711113P. Adamus1.67411891WSep 15 · 17:45G. Marud1.83111211113K. Schaniel1.83714691LSep 15 · 16:15G. Marud2.10118351M. Koczyba1.6751111113LSep 15 · 15:00G. Marud1.30116571G. Jurowicz3.4031111113
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