TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13133356
Played Sep 15Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
113611511711––
Grzegorz Jurowicz
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:28 and never touched — 60.4% is still 60.4%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Marud to win
60.4%
60.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingGrzegorz Marud above · Grzegorz Jurowicz below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 65 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Grzegorz Marud at 60.4%
65 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Marud 1–1 Grzegorz Jurowicz Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:28What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Marud
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Marud 1494 vs Jurowicz 1315
Marud
Wrong
both rated, 179 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 80% vs Jurowicz 40%
Marud
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 60% vs Jurowicz 40%
Marud
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud +3 · Jurowicz -1
Marud
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Marud) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jurowicz form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 1.30 / Jurowicz 3.40
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Marud)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13133356
Marud1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 126 of 229
Up 2–0, closes it86% 76 of 88
Up 1–0, closes it71% 102 of 144
Jurowicz3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 89 of 247
Down 0–1, comes back16% 24 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMarud1wins
AwayJurowicz1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMarudJurowiczM − JBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match40.036.5+3.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudJurowiczBasisWin rate · lifetime644 / 1363 vs 316 / 80147.3%39.5%644 / 1363 vs 316 / 801Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.535.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarudMarud 1.30/Jurowicz 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.1%
Marud · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jurowicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WDec 23 · 23:00G. Marud51111199113G. Jurowicz3536111142
LDec 23 · 21:45G. Marud29117381G. Jurowicz3851111113
G. Marud10
WSep 15 · 04:40I. Szymanski3.652850G. Marud1.211111113WSep 15 · 03:55S. Szostok2.17771211122G. Marud1.621111105143WSep 15 · 01:30K. Schaniel1.9711128942G. Marud1.689101111113LSep 15 · 24:50O. Jadach1.5712211113G. Marud2.161011701WSep 14 · 23:30K. Adamus1.70116871G. Marud1.9671111113WSep 14 · 22:40I. Szymanski3.65211491G. Marud1.2111511113LSep 14 · 21:55S. Szostok1.58511811113G. Marud2.1411811642LSep 14 · 19:55K. Schaniel2.009111411113G. Marud1.7111216382LSep 14 · 19:10K. Adamus1.8211118113G. Marud1.88771161WSep 14 · 17:30O. Jadach1.5721190G. Marud2.151113113
G. Jurowicz10
LSep 9 · 02:10G. Jurowicz1.915890P. Adamus1.801111113WSep 9 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.7351111952G. Jurowicz2.00117311113WSep 8 · 23:45L. Oracz1.50711581G. Jurowicz2.5011711113LSep 8 · 22:55G. Jurowicz1.801111119102J. Nowak1.91613811123LSep 8 · 21:45G. Jurowicz2.405660G. Marud1.501111113WSep 8 · 20:05G. Jurowicz2.25111011133P. Adamus1.578123111WSep 8 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.4413560G. Jurowicz2.631511113LSep 8 · 17:45G. Marud1.571111113G. Jurowicz2.259470LSep 8 · 16:55G. Jurowicz2.0011611772J. Nowak1.73811811113LSep 8 · 15:50G. Jurowicz2.507760L. Oracz1.501111113
Upcoming Matches
G. Marud
Sep 15 · 16:15G. Marud2.10M. Koczyba1.67—Sep 15 · 17:45G. Marud1.83K. Schaniel1.83—Sep 15 · 18:55G. Marud2.10P. Adamus1.67—Sep 15 · 20:30G. Marud2.10J. Pruszkowski1.67—Sep 15 · 21:45G. Marud1.83K. Schaniel1.83—Sep 15 · 22:35G. Marud1.30G. Jurowicz3.40—Sep 16 · 24:10G. Marud2.10J. Pruszkowski1.67—Sep 16 · 01:00G. Marud2.10P. Adamus1.67—Sep 16 · 01:45G. Marud2.10M. Koczyba1.67—
G. Jurowicz
Sep 15 · 16:35G. Jurowicz2.38P. Adamus1.53—Sep 15 · 17:20G. Jurowicz2.00M. Koczyba1.73—Sep 15 · 19:20G. Jurowicz2.63J. Pruszkowski1.44—Sep 15 · 20:05G. Jurowicz2.20K. Schaniel1.61—Sep 15 · 21:00G. Jurowicz2.35P. Adamus1.48—Sep 15 · 22:35G. Jurowicz3.40G. Marud1.30—Sep 15 · 23:20G. Jurowicz2.25M. Koczyba1.57—Sep 16 · 01:25G. Jurowicz2.63J. Pruszkowski1.44—Sep 16 · 02:10G. Jurowicz—K. Schaniel——
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