TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13134833
Played Sep 15Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117114711111––
Grzegorz Jurowicz
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:30 and never touched — 75.1% is still 75.1%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Marud to win
75.1%
75.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Marud above · Grzegorz Jurowicz below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-1
Point 63 set 4, 11-1 — our read held Grzegorz Marud at 75.1%
63 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Marud 4–2 Grzegorz Jurowicz Grzegorz Jurowicz has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Jurowicz beat Marud 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:30What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Marud
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Marud
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1466 vs Jurowicz 1344
Marud
Correct
both rated, 122 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 60% vs Jurowicz 40%
Marud
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 60% vs Jurowicz 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud -1 · Jurowicz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Marud) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marud form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 1.40 / Jurowicz 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Marud)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13134833
Marud1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 126 of 229
Up 2–0, closes it86% 76 of 88
Up 1–0, closes it71% 102 of 144
Jurowicz2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 89 of 247
Down 0–1, comes back16% 24 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMarud4wins
AwayJurowicz2wins
1 of 6 to a deciderMarud leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarud66.7%4 of 6
AwayJurowiczn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud6Jurowicz0n = 6Marud took 6 of 6
S2Marud4Jurowicz2n = 6Marud took 4 of 6
S3Marud2Jurowicz4n = 6Jurowicz took 4 of 6
S4Marud1Jurowicz3n = 4Jurowicz took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricMarudJurowiczM − JBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set60+6of 6Avg pointsper match35.828.2+7.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudJurowiczBasisWin rate · lifetime647 / 1365 vs 311 / 78847.4%39.5%647 / 1365 vs 311 / 788Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.535.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarudMarud 1.40/Jurowicz 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.3%
Marud · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 15 · 22:35G. Marud4011117113G. Jurowicz23741111
LSep 15 · 15:00G. Marud29116571G. Jurowicz3631111113
WSep 8 · 21:45G. Marud331111113G. Jurowicz175660
WSep 8 · 17:45G. Marud331111113G. Jurowicz209470
WDec 23 · 23:00G. Marud51111199113G. Jurowicz3536111142
LDec 23 · 21:45G. Marud29117381G. Jurowicz3851111113
G. Marud10
WSep 16 · 01:00P. Adamus1.6791220G. Marud2.101114113WSep 16 · 24:10G. Marud2.501111113J. Pruszkowski1.503880LSep 15 · 21:45K. Schaniel1.8011811113G. Marud1.91311561WSep 15 · 20:30G. Marud2.1011117133J. Pruszkowski1.679711111WSep 15 · 18:55G. Marud2.1011711113P. Adamus1.67411891WSep 15 · 17:45G. Marud1.83111211113K. Schaniel1.83714691LSep 15 · 16:15G. Marud2.10118351M. Koczyba1.6751111113LSep 15 · 15:00G. Marud1.30116571G. Jurowicz3.4031111113WSep 15 · 04:40I. Szymanski3.652850G. Marud1.211111113WSep 15 · 03:55S. Szostok2.17771211122G. Marud1.621111105143
G. Jurowicz10
WSep 15 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.57111051142G. Jurowicz2.25412118113LSep 15 · 21:00P. Adamus1.531111113G. Jurowicz2.387650WSep 15 · 20:05K. Schaniel1.6111116672G. Jurowicz2.20751111113LSep 15 · 19:20J. Pruszkowski1.50111412113G. Jurowicz2.508161091LSep 15 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.731112113G. Jurowicz2.0071060WSep 15 · 16:35P. Adamus1.53117101172G. Jurowicz2.38611127113WSep 15 · 15:00G. Marud1.30116571G. Jurowicz3.4031111113LSep 9 · 02:10G. Jurowicz1.915890P. Adamus1.801111113WSep 9 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.7351111952G. Jurowicz2.00117311113WSep 8 · 23:45L. Oracz1.50711581G. Jurowicz2.5011711113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.