TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13133608
Played Sep 15Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171214116119––
Krzysztof Schaniel
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:36 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Marud to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Marud above · Krzysztof Schaniel below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 81 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Grzegorz Marud at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Marud 103–95 Krzysztof Schaniel Krzysztof Schaniel has won 95 of their 198 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:36What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Schaniel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
103-95 in 198
Marud
Correct
gap of 8 in 198, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1458 vs Schaniel 1400
Marud
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 60% vs Schaniel 20%
Marud
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 50% vs Schaniel 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud -2 · Schaniel -3
Schaniel
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Marud)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schaniel form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 1.83 / Schaniel 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Marud)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13133608
Marud1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Schaniel1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarud5wins
AwaySchaniel5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarud60%3 of 5
AwaySchaniel60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud5Schaniel5n = 10split evenly
S2Marud2Schaniel8n = 10Schaniel took 8 of 10
S3Marud7Schaniel3n = 10Marud took 7 of 10
S4Marud6Schaniel3n = 9Marud took 6 of 9
S5Marud2Schaniel3n = 5Schaniel took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarudSchanielM − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.941.4+0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudSchanielBasisWin rate · lifetime644 / 1365 vs 876 / 175747.2%49.9%644 / 1365 vs 876 / 1757Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarudMarud 1.83/Schaniel 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Marud · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 01:30G. Marud529101111113K. Schaniel4411128942
LSep 14 · 19:55G. Marud4011216382K. Schaniel569111411113
WSep 1 · 21:20G. Marud4011711113K. Schaniel26411651
LSep 1 · 15:25G. Marud4486111182K. Schaniel45111175113
LAug 25 · 24:10G. Marud50117131182K. Schaniel551311119113
WAug 24 · 20:20G. Marud43111110113K. Schaniel34881261
LAug 24 · 24:20G. Marud36117991K. Schaniel4071111113
WAug 23 · 20:20G. Marud4291111113K. Schaniel28119351
WAug 4 · 22:35G. Marud51119125143K. Schaniel539111011122
LAug 4 · 15:00G. Marud215880K. Schaniel331111113
G. Marud10
WSep 15 · 18:55G. Marud2.1011711113P. Adamus1.67411891LSep 15 · 16:15G. Marud2.10118351M. Koczyba1.6751111113LSep 15 · 15:00G. Marud1.30116571G. Jurowicz3.4031111113WSep 15 · 04:40I. Szymanski3.652850G. Marud1.211111113WSep 15 · 03:55S. Szostok2.17771211122G. Marud1.621111105143WSep 15 · 01:30K. Schaniel1.9711128942G. Marud1.689101111113LSep 15 · 24:50O. Jadach1.5712211113G. Marud2.161011701WSep 14 · 23:30K. Adamus1.70116871G. Marud1.9671111113WSep 14 · 22:40I. Szymanski3.65211491G. Marud1.2111511113LSep 14 · 21:55S. Szostok1.58511811113G. Marud2.1411811642
K. Schaniel10
LSep 15 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.6111611113K. Schaniel2.20211961LSep 15 · 16:55K. Schaniel2.5011750J. Pruszkowski1.501311113LSep 15 · 15:50K. Schaniel2.2079111192P. Adamus1.61111176113LSep 15 · 04:20K. Schaniel2.35911931O. Jadach1.5411611113WSep 15 · 03:05K. Schaniel1.2615127113I. Szymanski3.2513101181LSep 15 · 01:30K. Schaniel1.9711128942G. Marud1.689101111113WSep 15 · 24:30K. Adamus1.8079100K. Schaniel1.851111123WSep 14 · 23:50K. Schaniel2.0911118113S. Szostok1.67681191WSep 14 · 22:20K. Schaniel2.1011117113K. Adamus1.60971171LSep 14 · 21:05K. Schaniel1.267550I. Szymanski3.251111113
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