TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13133618
Played Sep 15Finished
Mariusz Koczyba
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171210116––––
Grzegorz Jurowicz
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:36 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMariusz Koczyba above · Grzegorz Jurowicz below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 57 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Mariusz Koczyba at 56.7%
57 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 2–2 Grzegorz Jurowicz Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:36What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Koczyba
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1391 vs Jurowicz 1336
Koczyba
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 40% vs Jurowicz 80%
Jurowicz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 60% vs Jurowicz 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba +1 · Jurowicz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Koczyba) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jurowicz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.73 / Jurowicz 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Koczyba)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13133618
Koczyba1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite66% won 321 of 489
Up 2–0, closes it94% 167 of 177
Up 1–0, closes it81% 228 of 281
Jurowicz2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 89 of 247
Down 0–1, comes back16% 24 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKoczyba2wins
AwayJurowicz2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyban = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayJurowicz66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba1Jurowicz3n = 4Jurowicz took 3 of 4
S2Koczyba3Jurowicz1n = 4Koczyba took 3 of 4
S3Koczyba3Jurowicz1n = 4Koczyba took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricKoczybaJurowiczK − JBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match34.032.5+1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaJurowiczBasisWin rate · lifetime857 / 1312 vs 311 / 78765.3%39.5%857 / 1312 vs 311 / 787Avg sets wonper match2.31.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.335.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaKoczyba 1.73/Jurowicz 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Koczyba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 15 · 17:20M. Koczyba341112113G. Jurowicz2371060
LSep 9 · 24:35M. Koczyba4151111952G. Jurowicz43117311113
LSep 8 · 18:30M. Koczyba2413560G. Jurowicz371511113
WDec 24 · 01:45M. Koczyba3741111113G. Jurowicz27113491
M. Koczyba10
WSep 16 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.501112113S. Krupa2.3241070WSep 16 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.321611143A. Ruszkiewicz2.90147120WSep 16 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.299111110113J. Kaczmarek3.1011581272WSep 16 · 16:25O. Sokolowski2.505640M. Koczyba1.471111113LSep 16 · 15:35M. Koczyba1.61118641M. Adamus2.2071111113WSep 16 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.7351111123G. Marud2.001188101WSep 16 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.73511119113K. Schaniel2.0011781152LSep 15 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.57111051142G. Jurowicz2.25412118113LSep 15 · 22:10P. Adamus1.671211113M. Koczyba2.1010890LSep 15 · 21:20M. Koczyba2.10561971J. Pruszkowski1.67111117113
G. Jurowicz10
LSep 16 · 02:10K. Schaniel2.001111113G. Jurowicz1.735690LSep 16 · 01:25J. Pruszkowski1.611111113G. Jurowicz2.209730WSep 15 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.57111051142G. Jurowicz2.25412118113LSep 15 · 22:35G. Marud1.4011117113G. Jurowicz2.75741111LSep 15 · 21:00P. Adamus1.531111113G. Jurowicz2.387650WSep 15 · 20:05K. Schaniel1.6111116672G. Jurowicz2.20751111113LSep 15 · 19:20J. Pruszkowski1.50111412113G. Jurowicz2.508161091WSep 15 · 16:35P. Adamus1.53117101172G. Jurowicz2.38611127113WSep 15 · 15:00G. Marud1.30116571G. Jurowicz3.4031111113LSep 9 · 02:10G. Jurowicz1.915890P. Adamus1.801111113
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