TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13134810
Played Sep 16Finished
Jakub Pruszkowski
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117113––––
Grzegorz Jurowicz
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:29 and never touched — 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeJakub Pruszkowski to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Pruszkowski above · Grzegorz Jurowicz below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 52 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Jakub Pruszkowski at 67.7%
52 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Pruszkowski 17–11 Grzegorz Jurowicz Grzegorz Jurowicz has won 11 of their 28 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Pruszkowski beat Jurowicz 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:29What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Pruszkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-11 in 28
Pruszkowski
Correct
gap of 6 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pruszkowski 1509 vs Jurowicz 1339
Pruszkowski
Correct
both rated, 170 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pruszkowski 40% vs Jurowicz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pruszkowski 70% vs Jurowicz 50%
Pruszkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pruszkowski -2 · Jurowicz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Pruszkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pruszkowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPruszkowski 1.61 / Jurowicz 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Pruszkowski)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13134810
Pruszkowski1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 459 of 702
Up 2–0, closes it95% 236 of 248
Up 1–0, closes it83% 356 of 428
Jurowicz2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog36% won 89 of 247
Down 0–1, comes back16% 24 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePruszkowski4wins
AwayJurowicz6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJurowicz leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePruszkowski80%4 of 5
AwayJurowicz100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pruszkowski5Jurowicz5n = 10split evenly
S2Pruszkowski5Jurowicz5n = 10split evenly
S3Pruszkowski4Jurowicz6n = 10Jurowicz took 6 of 10
S4Pruszkowski4Jurowicz1n = 5Pruszkowski took 4 of 5
S5Pruszkowski0Jurowicz3n = 3Jurowicz took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPruszkowskiJurowiczP − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.037.3−1.3per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPruszkowskiJurowiczBasisWin rate · lifetime1136 / 1790 vs 312 / 79063.5%39.5%1136 / 1790 vs 312 / 790Avg sets wonper match2.31.7per matchAvg pointsper match39.135.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PruszkowskiPruszkowski 1.61/Jurowicz 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Pruszkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pruszkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 01:25J. Pruszkowski331111113G. Jurowicz199730
WSep 15 · 19:20J. Pruszkowski48111412113G. Jurowicz438161091
WJul 17 · 13:55J. Pruszkowski351111133G. Jurowicz2375110
LJul 17 · 07:55J. Pruszkowski30128100G. Jurowicz371411123
LMay 7 · 17:05J. Pruszkowski2491050G. Jurowicz341112113
LMay 7 · 08:45J. Pruszkowski47911511112G. Jurowicz50119116133
LMar 25 · 18:05J. Pruszkowski228770G. Jurowicz331111113
LMar 25 · 09:45J. Pruszkowski4061171152G. Jurowicz50118119113
WMar 12 · 15:45J. Pruszkowski4111118113G. Jurowicz37891191
LMar 12 · 12:05J. Pruszkowski4013711362G. Jurowicz471111311113
J. Pruszkowski10
LSep 16 · 02:35P. Adamus1.6711511133J. Pruszkowski2.109118111LSep 16 · 24:10G. Marud2.501111113J. Pruszkowski1.503880LSep 15 · 22:55K. Schaniel2.7571112113J. Pruszkowski1.401151071WSep 15 · 21:20M. Koczyba2.10561971J. Pruszkowski1.67111117113LSep 15 · 20:30G. Marud2.1011117133J. Pruszkowski1.679711111WSep 15 · 19:20J. Pruszkowski1.50111412113G. Jurowicz2.508161091WSep 15 · 18:10P. Adamus1.80711661J. Pruszkowski1.9111911113WSep 15 · 16:55K. Schaniel2.5011750J. Pruszkowski1.501311113WSep 15 · 15:25M. Koczyba1.8361090J. Pruszkowski1.831112113WSep 14 · 17:05W. Tobiasz3.0041111152J. Pruszkowski1.36116119113
G. Jurowicz10
LSep 16 · 02:10K. Schaniel2.001111113G. Jurowicz1.735690WSep 15 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.57111051142G. Jurowicz2.25412118113LSep 15 · 22:35G. Marud1.4011117113G. Jurowicz2.75741111LSep 15 · 21:00P. Adamus1.531111113G. Jurowicz2.387650WSep 15 · 20:05K. Schaniel1.6111116672G. Jurowicz2.20751111113LSep 15 · 19:20J. Pruszkowski1.50111412113G. Jurowicz2.508161091LSep 15 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.731112113G. Jurowicz2.0071060WSep 15 · 16:35P. Adamus1.53117101172G. Jurowicz2.38611127113WSep 15 · 15:00G. Marud1.30116571G. Jurowicz3.4031111113LSep 9 · 02:10G. Jurowicz1.915890P. Adamus1.801111113
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