TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13134794
Played Sep 16Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113118118––––
Jakub Pruszkowski
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:17 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeJakub Pruszkowski to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingGrzegorz Marud above · Jakub Pruszkowski below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 52 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Jakub Pruszkowski at 56.2%
52 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Marud 91–114 Jakub Pruszkowski Grzegorz Marud has won 91 of their 205 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Marud beat Pruszkowski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:17What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Pruszkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
91-114 in 205
Pruszkowski
Wrong
gap of 23 in 205, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1509 vs Pruszkowski 1492
Marud
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 80% vs Pruszkowski 60%
Marud
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 70% vs Pruszkowski 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud +1 · Pruszkowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Pruszkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marud form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 2.50 / Pruszkowski 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Pruszkowski)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13134794
Marud2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog41% won 124 of 306
Down 0–1, comes back22% 37 of 168
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 103
Pruszkowski1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 459 of 702
Up 2–0, closes it95% 236 of 248
Up 1–0, closes it83% 356 of 428
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarud4wins
AwayPruszkowski6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPruszkowski leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarud66.7%4 of 6
AwayPruszkowski100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud6Pruszkowski4n = 10Marud took 6 of 10
S2Marud6Pruszkowski4n = 10Marud took 6 of 10
S3Marud4Pruszkowski6n = 10Pruszkowski took 6 of 10
S4Marud5Pruszkowski4n = 9Marud took 5 of 9
S5Marud0Pruszkowski3n = 3Pruszkowski took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarudPruszkowskiM − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.842.4+0.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudPruszkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime648 / 1365 vs 1135 / 178947.5%63.4%648 / 1365 vs 1135 / 1789Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PruszkowskiMarud 2.50/Pruszkowski 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Pruszkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 2 · 22:40G. Marud53131171392J. Pruszkowski561181115113
LJul 29 · 24:25G. Marud496121011102J. Pruszkowski501110125123
WJul 28 · 20:45G. Marud4711168123J. Pruszkowski4271411101
WJul 7 · 01:10G. Marud4111118113J. Pruszkowski29381171
LJul 6 · 19:30G. Marud34881171J. Pruszkowski4111118113
LJul 6 · 01:30G. Marud54981311132J. Pruszkowski551111117153
WJul 5 · 19:30G. Marud331111113J. Pruszkowski269980
WJun 30 · 04:40G. Marud4211128113J. Pruszkowski358101161
LJun 29 · 22:40G. Marud4111613111J. Pruszkowski4671115133
LJun 29 · 04:40G. Marud348101241J. Pruszkowski44111210113
G. Marud10
WSep 16 · 01:00P. Adamus1.6791220G. Marud2.101114113WSep 15 · 22:35G. Marud1.4011117113G. Jurowicz2.75741111LSep 15 · 21:45K. Schaniel1.8011811113G. Marud1.91311561WSep 15 · 20:30G. Marud2.1011117133J. Pruszkowski1.679711111WSep 15 · 18:55G. Marud2.1011711113P. Adamus1.67411891WSep 15 · 17:45G. Marud1.83111211113K. Schaniel1.83714691LSep 15 · 16:15G. Marud2.10118351M. Koczyba1.6751111113LSep 15 · 15:00G. Marud1.30116571G. Jurowicz3.4031111113WSep 15 · 04:40I. Szymanski3.652850G. Marud1.211111113WSep 15 · 03:55S. Szostok2.17771211122G. Marud1.621111105143
J. Pruszkowski10
LSep 15 · 22:55K. Schaniel2.7571112113J. Pruszkowski1.401151071WSep 15 · 21:20M. Koczyba2.10561971J. Pruszkowski1.67111117113LSep 15 · 20:30G. Marud2.1011117133J. Pruszkowski1.679711111WSep 15 · 19:20J. Pruszkowski1.50111412113G. Jurowicz2.508161091WSep 15 · 18:10P. Adamus1.80711661J. Pruszkowski1.9111911113WSep 15 · 16:55K. Schaniel2.5011750J. Pruszkowski1.501311113WSep 15 · 15:25M. Koczyba1.8361090J. Pruszkowski1.831112113WSep 14 · 17:05W. Tobiasz3.0041111152J. Pruszkowski1.36116119113WSep 14 · 15:55J. Pruszkowski1.85811118113M. Baron1.8011961172LSep 14 · 14:45G. Wichowski2.0611116113J. Pruszkowski1.63641141
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