TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13130738
Played Sep 15Finished
Mariusz Koczyba
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6111012911––––
Jakub Pruszkowski
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:29 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeJakub Pruszkowski to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMariusz Koczyba above · Jakub Pruszkowski below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 59 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Jakub Pruszkowski at 58.5%
59 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 14–25 Jakub Pruszkowski Mariusz Koczyba has won 14 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:29What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Pruszkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-25 in 39
Pruszkowski
Correct
gap of 11 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1335 vs Pruszkowski 1507
Pruszkowski
Correct
both rated, 172 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 60% vs Pruszkowski 80%
Pruszkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 60% vs Pruszkowski 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba -2 · Pruszkowski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pruszkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pruszkowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.83 / Pruszkowski 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pruszkowski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13130738
Koczyba1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Pruszkowski1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba2wins
AwayPruszkowski8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPruszkowski leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba25%1 of 4
AwayPruszkowski83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba4Pruszkowski6n = 10Pruszkowski took 6 of 10
S2Koczyba3Pruszkowski7n = 10Pruszkowski took 7 of 10
S3Koczyba4Pruszkowski6n = 10Pruszkowski took 6 of 10
S4Koczyba2Pruszkowski6n = 8Pruszkowski took 6 of 8
S5Koczyba2Pruszkowski3n = 5Pruszkowski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaPruszkowskiK − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.943.2−3.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaPruszkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime859 / 1317 vs 1130 / 178165.2%63.5%859 / 1317 vs 1130 / 1781Avg sets wonper match2.32.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PruszkowskiKoczyba 1.83/Pruszkowski 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pruszkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pruszkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 6 · 02:00M. Koczyba31581171J. Pruszkowski4111118113
LAug 5 · 16:25M. Koczyba4311118942J. Pruszkowski45931111113
LJul 30 · 02:00M. Koczyba33811591J. Pruszkowski3811511113
LJul 29 · 16:25M. Koczyba4511611892J. Pruszkowski51911911113
LJul 28 · 18:25M. Koczyba417911141J. Pruszkowski4211114163
LJul 21 · 16:15M. Koczyba30109110J. Pruszkowski361211133
WJun 18 · 15:35M. Koczyba559141011113J. Pruszkowski49111212862
LMay 28 · 23:35M. Koczyba4613771182J. Pruszkowski521111118113
WApr 10 · 24:45M. Koczyba521110119113J. Pruszkowski4491251172
LMar 3 · 17:50M. Koczyba2310670J. Pruszkowski341211113
M. Koczyba10
WSep 15 · 16:15G. Marud2.10118351M. Koczyba1.6751111113LSep 10 · 20:00M. Koczyba2.9589111172P. Gasiorski1.31111166113LSep 10 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.9181070K. Durak1.741112113WSep 10 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.8811811113M. Tkocz1.82911661WSep 10 · 16:25P. Brozek1.90116491M. Koczyba1.8081111113WSep 10 · 15:35M. Koczyba1.861111133P. Zemla1.7863110LSep 9 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.70851191S. Krupa2.0011117113WSep 9 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.5581114113W. Jozala2.251131271WSep 9 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.55471114113M. Baron2.30111151262LSep 9 · 16:25W. Pytlas2.10761211113M. Koczyba1.60111110892
J. Pruszkowski10
WSep 15 · 16:55K. Schaniel2.5011750J. Pruszkowski1.501311113WSep 14 · 17:05W. Tobiasz3.0041111152J. Pruszkowski1.36116119113WSep 14 · 15:55J. Pruszkowski1.85811118113M. Baron1.8011961172LSep 14 · 14:45G. Wichowski2.0611116113J. Pruszkowski1.63641141WSep 14 · 13:30P. Mecik3.0586110J. Pruszkowski1.291111133WSep 14 · 11:55Y. Fomin2.30611591J. Pruszkowski1.5511611113WSep 14 · 11:05G. Wichowski2.0697100J. Pruszkowski1.631111123LSep 14 · 09:55J. Pruszkowski1.4571111562M. Baron2.50118811113WSep 14 · 08:45W. Tobiasz2.856810J. Pruszkowski1.351111113LSep 14 · 07:30P. Mecik2.7511911113J. Pruszkowski1.37811791
Upcoming Matches
M. Koczyba
Sep 15 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.73G. Jurowicz2.00—Sep 15 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.61K. Schaniel2.20—Sep 15 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.83P. Adamus1.83—Sep 15 · 21:20M. Koczyba2.10J. Pruszkowski1.67—Sep 15 · 22:10M. Koczyba1.91P. Adamus1.80—Sep 15 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.57G. Jurowicz2.25—Sep 16 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.61K. Schaniel2.20—Sep 16 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.67G. Marud2.10—Sep 16 · 15:35M. Koczyba—M. Adamus——Sep 16 · 16:25M. Koczyba—O. Sokolowski——
J. Pruszkowski
Sep 15 · 18:10J. Pruszkowski1.91P. Adamus1.80—Sep 15 · 19:20J. Pruszkowski1.50G. Jurowicz2.50—Sep 15 · 20:30J. Pruszkowski1.67G. Marud2.10—Sep 15 · 21:20J. Pruszkowski1.67M. Koczyba2.10—Sep 15 · 22:55J. Pruszkowski1.50K. Schaniel2.50—Sep 16 · 24:10J. Pruszkowski1.67G. Marud2.10—Sep 16 · 01:25J. Pruszkowski1.44G. Jurowicz2.63—Sep 16 · 02:35J. Pruszkowski1.91P. Adamus1.80—Sep 16 · 22:00J. Pruszkowski—P. Adamus——Sep 16 · 23:10J. Pruszkowski—O. Sokolowski——
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