TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13134704
Played Sep 15Finished
Pawel Adamus
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210118119––––
Mariusz Koczyba
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePawel Adamus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPawel Adamus above · Mariusz Koczyba below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 61 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Pawel Adamus at 54.0%
61 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Adamus 7–7 Mariusz Koczyba Dead even across their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Koczyba beat Adamus 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 11:07What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Adamus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-7 in 14
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1415 vs Koczyba 1383
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 20% vs Koczyba 80%
Koczyba
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 40% vs Koczyba 60%
Koczyba
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +1 · Koczyba -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koczyba form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.67 / Koczyba 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Adamus)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13134704
Adamus1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 193 of 302
Up 2–0, closes it99% 92 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it79% 144 of 183
Koczyba2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 26 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back26% 10 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus6wins
AwayKoczyba4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus66.7%4 of 6
AwayKoczyba50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus6Koczyba4n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S2Adamus2Koczyba8n = 10Koczyba took 8 of 10
S3Adamus8Koczyba2n = 10Adamus took 8 of 10
S4Adamus7Koczyba3n = 10Adamus took 7 of 10
S5Adamus1Koczyba2n = 3Koczyba took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusKoczybaA − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.437.9+2.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusKoczybaBasisWin rate · lifetime360 / 650 vs 857 / 131355.4%65.3%360 / 650 vs 857 / 1313Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match40.438.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.67/Koczyba 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 23:20P. Adamus4111811113M. Koczyba28511661
WSep 8 · 17:20P. Adamus4211911113M. Koczyba32811491
WAug 26 · 22:25P. Adamus3851111113M. Koczyba30118741
WAug 26 · 20:00P. Adamus471141110113M. Koczyba4391161252
LAug 4 · 15:25P. Adamus43111061152M. Koczyba46612116113
WJul 21 · 18:30P. Adamus44111111113M. Koczyba31713561
LJul 2 · 18:25P. Adamus30771151M. Koczyba4011117113
WApr 30 · 02:00P. Adamus4171211113M. Koczyba381110891
LApr 29 · 16:25P. Adamus30581161M. Koczyba4111118113
LFeb 10 · 19:25P. Adamus4811591492M. Koczyba505111112113
P. Adamus10
LSep 15 · 23:45P. Adamus1.6111121110102K. Schaniel2.20414912123WSep 15 · 21:00P. Adamus1.531111113G. Jurowicz2.387650LSep 15 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.831111113P. Adamus1.836870LSep 15 · 18:55G. Marud2.1011711113P. Adamus1.67411891LSep 15 · 18:10P. Adamus1.80711661J. Pruszkowski1.9111911113LSep 15 · 16:35P. Adamus1.53117101172G. Jurowicz2.38611127113WSep 15 · 15:50K. Schaniel2.2079111192P. Adamus1.61111176113LSep 10 · 08:20P. Adamus2.0081111442O. Sokolowski1.70117811113WSep 10 · 06:50J. Kaczmarek2.65681571P. Adamus1.38111113113LSep 10 · 06:10M. Lebek1.71111177113P. Adamus2.0048111192
M. Koczyba10
WSep 16 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.73511119113K. Schaniel2.0011781152LSep 15 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.57111051142G. Jurowicz2.25412118113LSep 15 · 21:20M. Koczyba2.10561971J. Pruszkowski1.67111117113WSep 15 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.831111113P. Adamus1.836870WSep 15 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.6111611113K. Schaniel2.20211961WSep 15 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.731112113G. Jurowicz2.0071060WSep 15 · 16:15G. Marud2.10118351M. Koczyba1.6751111113LSep 15 · 15:25M. Koczyba1.8361090J. Pruszkowski1.831112113LSep 10 · 20:00M. Koczyba2.9589111172P. Gasiorski1.31111166113LSep 10 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.9181070K. Durak1.741112113
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