TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13134325
Played Sep 15Finished
Mariusz Koczyba
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118117––––
Pawel Adamus
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:29 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePawel Adamus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMariusz Koczyba above · Pawel Adamus below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 54 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Pawel Adamus at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 7–7 Pawel Adamus Dead even across their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:29What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-7 in 14
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1384 vs Adamus 1432
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 60% vs Adamus 20%
Koczyba
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 60% vs Adamus 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba +3 · Adamus -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adamus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.83 / Adamus 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Adamus)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13134325
Koczyba1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Adamus1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba4wins
AwayAdamus6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba50%2 of 4
AwayAdamus66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba4Adamus6n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S2Koczyba8Adamus2n = 10Koczyba took 8 of 10
S3Koczyba2Adamus8n = 10Adamus took 8 of 10
S4Koczyba3Adamus7n = 10Adamus took 7 of 10
S5Koczyba2Adamus1n = 3Koczyba took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaAdamusK − ABasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.940.4−2.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime857 / 1313 vs 359 / 64865.3%55.4%857 / 1313 vs 359 / 648Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.340.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusKoczyba 1.83/Adamus 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Koczyba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 23:20M. Koczyba28511661P. Adamus4111811113
LSep 8 · 17:20M. Koczyba32811491P. Adamus4211911113
LAug 26 · 22:25M. Koczyba30118741P. Adamus3851111113
LAug 26 · 20:00M. Koczyba4391161252P. Adamus471141110113
WAug 4 · 15:25M. Koczyba46612116113P. Adamus43111061152
LJul 21 · 18:30M. Koczyba31713561P. Adamus44111111113
WJul 2 · 18:25M. Koczyba4011117113P. Adamus30771151
LApr 30 · 02:00M. Koczyba381110891P. Adamus4171211113
WApr 29 · 16:25M. Koczyba4111118113P. Adamus30581161
WFeb 10 · 19:25M. Koczyba505111112113P. Adamus4811591492
M. Koczyba10
WSep 15 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.6111611113K. Schaniel2.20211961WSep 15 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.731112113G. Jurowicz2.0071060WSep 15 · 16:15G. Marud2.10118351M. Koczyba1.6751111113LSep 15 · 15:25M. Koczyba1.8361090J. Pruszkowski1.831112113LSep 10 · 20:00M. Koczyba2.9589111172P. Gasiorski1.31111166113LSep 10 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.9181070K. Durak1.741112113WSep 10 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.8811811113M. Tkocz1.82911661WSep 10 · 16:25P. Brozek1.90116491M. Koczyba1.8081111113WSep 10 · 15:35M. Koczyba1.861111133P. Zemla1.7863110LSep 9 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.70851191S. Krupa2.0011117113
P. Adamus10
WSep 15 · 21:00P. Adamus1.531111113G. Jurowicz2.387650LSep 15 · 18:55G. Marud2.1011711113P. Adamus1.67411891LSep 15 · 18:10P. Adamus1.80711661J. Pruszkowski1.9111911113LSep 15 · 16:35P. Adamus1.53117101172G. Jurowicz2.38611127113WSep 15 · 15:50K. Schaniel2.2079111192P. Adamus1.61111176113LSep 10 · 08:20P. Adamus2.0081111442O. Sokolowski1.70117811113WSep 10 · 06:50J. Kaczmarek2.65681571P. Adamus1.38111113113LSep 10 · 06:10M. Lebek1.71111177113P. Adamus2.0048111192WSep 10 · 05:30P. Adamus1.4411612113A. Burkacki2.469111071WSep 10 · 04:00P. Adamus1.45111011123P. Slosarczyk2.444126101
Upcoming Matches
M. Koczyba
Sep 15 · 21:20M. Koczyba2.10J. Pruszkowski1.67—Sep 15 · 22:10M. Koczyba2.10P. Adamus1.67—Sep 15 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.57G. Jurowicz2.25—Sep 16 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.73K. Schaniel2.00—Sep 16 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.73G. Marud2.00—Sep 16 · 15:35M. Koczyba—M. Adamus——Sep 16 · 16:25M. Koczyba—O. Sokolowski——Sep 16 · 17:35M. Koczyba—J. Kaczmarek——Sep 16 · 18:45M. Koczyba—A. Ruszkiewicz——Sep 16 · 20:00M. Koczyba—S. Krupa——
P. Adamus
Sep 15 · 22:10P. Adamus1.67M. Koczyba2.10—Sep 15 · 23:45P. Adamus1.61K. Schaniel2.20—Sep 16 · 01:00P. Adamus1.73G. Marud2.00—Sep 16 · 02:35P. Adamus1.67J. Pruszkowski2.10—Sep 16 · 22:00P. Adamus—J. Pruszkowski——Sep 16 · 22:50P. Adamus—M. Lebek——Sep 17 · 24:25P. Adamus—O. Sokolowski——Sep 17 · 01:10P. Adamus—O. Jadach——Sep 17 · 02:00P. Adamus—O. Vincenec——
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