TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13134793
Played Sep 15Finished
Pawel Adamus
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
114121411910121012
Krzysztof Schaniel
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:17 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timePawel Adamus to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPawel Adamus above · Krzysztof Schaniel below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 105 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Pawel Adamus at 58.9%
105 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Adamus 13–11 Krzysztof Schaniel Krzysztof Schaniel has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Adamus beat Schaniel 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:17What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-11 in 24
Adamus
Wrong
gap of 2 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1427 vs Schaniel 1373
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 40% vs Schaniel 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 40% vs Schaniel 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +2 · Schaniel +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Adamus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.61 / Schaniel 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Adamus)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13134793
Adamus1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 193 of 302
Up 2–0, closes it99% 92 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it79% 144 of 183
Schaniel2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 181 of 429
Down 0–1, comes back29% 66 of 231
Down 0–2, comes back11% 14 of 125
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus5wins
AwaySchaniel5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus60%3 of 5
AwaySchaniel60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus5Schaniel5n = 10split evenly
S2Adamus7Schaniel3n = 10Adamus took 7 of 10
S3Adamus3Schaniel7n = 10Schaniel took 7 of 10
S4Adamus3Schaniel4n = 7Schaniel took 4 of 7
S5Adamus3Schaniel2n = 5Adamus took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusSchanielA − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.241.7+0.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusSchanielBasisWin rate · lifetime361 / 651 vs 874 / 175755.5%49.7%361 / 651 vs 874 / 1757Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.439.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.61/Schaniel 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Schaniel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 15:50P. Adamus46111176113K. Schaniel4779111192
LSep 7 · 01:10P. Adamus43101161152K. Schaniel46124118113
LAug 25 · 04:20P. Adamus4111111091K. Schaniel4371312113
LAug 24 · 18:45P. Adamus5411111111102K. Schaniel53913613123
WAug 15 · 06:25P. Adamus46411911113K. Schaniel4811811992
WAug 5 · 01:25P. Adamus331111113K. Schaniel237880
LAug 4 · 19:20P. Adamus35711891K. Schaniel4211911113
WJul 11 · 01:00P. Adamus6312111211173K. Schaniel55146146152
LJul 10 · 18:55P. Adamus2881280K. Schaniel361114113
WJul 1 · 10:35P. Adamus331111113K. Schaniel246990
P. Adamus10
LSep 16 · 01:00P. Adamus1.6791220G. Marud2.101114113WSep 15 · 22:10P. Adamus1.671211113M. Koczyba2.1010890WSep 15 · 21:00P. Adamus1.531111113G. Jurowicz2.387650LSep 15 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.831111113P. Adamus1.836870LSep 15 · 18:55G. Marud2.1011711113P. Adamus1.67411891LSep 15 · 18:10P. Adamus1.80711661J. Pruszkowski1.9111911113LSep 15 · 16:35P. Adamus1.53117101172G. Jurowicz2.38611127113WSep 15 · 15:50K. Schaniel2.2079111192P. Adamus1.61111176113LSep 10 · 08:20P. Adamus2.0081111442O. Sokolowski1.70117811113WSep 10 · 06:50J. Kaczmarek2.65681571P. Adamus1.38111113113
K. Schaniel10
LSep 16 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.73511119113K. Schaniel2.0011781152WSep 15 · 22:55K. Schaniel2.7571112113J. Pruszkowski1.401151071WSep 15 · 21:45K. Schaniel1.8011811113G. Marud1.91311561LSep 15 · 20:05K. Schaniel1.6111116672G. Jurowicz2.20751111113LSep 15 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.6111611113K. Schaniel2.20211961LSep 15 · 17:45G. Marud1.83111211113K. Schaniel1.83714691LSep 15 · 16:55K. Schaniel2.5011750J. Pruszkowski1.501311113LSep 15 · 15:50K. Schaniel2.2079111192P. Adamus1.61111176113LSep 15 · 04:20K. Schaniel2.35911931O. Jadach1.5411611113WSep 15 · 03:05K. Schaniel1.2615127113I. Szymanski3.2513101181
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