TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13134803
Played Sep 16Finished
Mariusz Koczyba
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511117118911115
Krzysztof Schaniel
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:30 and never touched — 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMariusz Koczyba above · Krzysztof Schaniel below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 89 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Mariusz Koczyba at 55.9%
89 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 27–16 Krzysztof Schaniel Krzysztof Schaniel has won 16 of their 43 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Koczyba beat Schaniel 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:30What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Koczyba
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-16 in 43
Koczyba
Correct
gap of 11 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1396 vs Schaniel 1361
Koczyba
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 40% vs Schaniel 60%
Schaniel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 40% vs Schaniel 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba -3 · Schaniel +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Koczyba) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koczyba form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.73 / Schaniel 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Koczyba)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13134803
Koczyba1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 321 of 489
Up 2–0, closes it94% 167 of 177
Up 1–0, closes it81% 228 of 281
Schaniel2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 181 of 429
Down 0–1, comes back29% 66 of 231
Down 0–2, comes back11% 14 of 125
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba7wins
AwaySchaniel3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKoczyba leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba100%6 of 6
AwaySchaniel75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba6Schaniel4n = 10Koczyba took 6 of 10
S2Koczyba5Schaniel5n = 10split evenly
S3Koczyba7Schaniel3n = 10Koczyba took 7 of 10
S4Koczyba6Schaniel1n = 7Koczyba took 6 of 7
S5Koczyba1Schaniel2n = 3Schaniel took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaSchanielK − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.134.6+5.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaSchanielBasisWin rate · lifetime857 / 1313 vs 874 / 175865.3%49.7%857 / 1313 vs 874 / 1758Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaKoczyba 1.73/Schaniel 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Koczyba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 3 · 02:00M. Koczyba51781411113K. Schaniel46111112662
WJun 2 · 16:25M. Koczyba331111113K. Schaniel217770
WMay 7 · 23:35M. Koczyba4211146113K. Schaniel387121181
LApr 30 · 24:45M. Koczyba208570K. Schaniel331111113
WApr 16 · 21:35M. Koczyba331111113K. Schaniel205780
LApr 16 · 15:35M. Koczyba4881112892K. Schaniel461131011113
WApr 9 · 23:35M. Koczyba43111110113K. Schaniel30721291
LApr 9 · 17:35M. Koczyba518101112102K. Schaniel531112810123
WMar 24 · 17:00M. Koczyba4111811113K. Schaniel32611961
WMar 6 · 24:35M. Koczyba3911611113K. Schaniel27511741
M. Koczyba10
LSep 15 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.57111051142G. Jurowicz2.25412118113LSep 15 · 22:10P. Adamus1.671211113M. Koczyba2.1010890LSep 15 · 21:20M. Koczyba2.10561971J. Pruszkowski1.67111117113WSep 15 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.831111113P. Adamus1.836870WSep 15 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.6111611113K. Schaniel2.20211961WSep 15 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.731112113G. Jurowicz2.0071060WSep 15 · 16:15G. Marud2.10118351M. Koczyba1.6751111113LSep 15 · 15:25M. Koczyba1.8361090J. Pruszkowski1.831112113LSep 10 · 20:00M. Koczyba2.9589111172P. Gasiorski1.31111166113LSep 10 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.9181070K. Durak1.741112113
K. Schaniel10
WSep 15 · 23:45P. Adamus1.6111121110102K. Schaniel2.20414912123WSep 15 · 22:55K. Schaniel2.7571112113J. Pruszkowski1.401151071WSep 15 · 21:45K. Schaniel1.8011811113G. Marud1.91311561LSep 15 · 20:05K. Schaniel1.6111116672G. Jurowicz2.20751111113LSep 15 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.6111611113K. Schaniel2.20211961LSep 15 · 17:45G. Marud1.83111211113K. Schaniel1.83714691LSep 15 · 16:55K. Schaniel2.5011750J. Pruszkowski1.501311113LSep 15 · 15:50K. Schaniel2.2079111192P. Adamus1.61111176113LSep 15 · 04:20K. Schaniel2.35911931O. Jadach1.5411611113WSep 15 · 03:05K. Schaniel1.2615127113I. Szymanski3.2513101181
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