TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13135723
Played Sep 16Finished
Mariusz Koczyba
Home
1.61
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117811611411––
Mariusz Adamus
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:31 and never touched — 54.4% is still 54.4%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
54.4%
54.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
117811611411––
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 37–24 Mariusz Adamus Mariusz Adamus has won 24 of their 61 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:31What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Koczyba
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-24 in 61
Koczyba
Wrong
gap of 13 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1412 vs Adamus 1479
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 40% vs Adamus 60%
Adamus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 60% vs Adamus 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba +2 · Adamus +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Koczyba) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.61 / Adamus 2.20
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Koczyba)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13135723
Koczyba1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 319 of 486
Up 2–0, closes it94% 165 of 175
Up 1–0, closes it81% 226 of 280
Adamus2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 175 of 417
Down 0–1, comes back21% 45 of 212
Down 0–2, comes back8% 9 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba6wins
AwayAdamus4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKoczyba leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba80%4 of 5
AwayAdamus60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S2Koczyba6Adamus4n = 10Koczyba took 6 of 10
S3Koczyba6Adamus4n = 10Koczyba took 6 of 10
S4Koczyba2Adamus5n = 7Adamus took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaAdamusK − ABasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.238.7−0.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime857 / 1313 vs 799 / 163665.3%48.8%857 / 1313 vs 799 / 1636Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaKoczyba 1.61/Adamus 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 20 · 18:45M. Koczyba43111110113M. Adamus31571271
LAug 13 · 24:45M. Koczyba3851110121M. Adamus4611912143
WAug 7 · 18:30M. Koczyba4291111113M. Adamus32117861
WAug 2 · 08:20M. Koczyba53316117163M. Adamus581114811142
WJul 8 · 18:45M. Koczyba581110148153M. Adamus568121211132
LJun 25 · 02:00M. Koczyba1512120M. Adamus361111143
LJun 24 · 15:35M. Koczyba34117881M. Adamus4291111113
LJun 16 · 20:00M. Koczyba31581171M. Adamus4111118113
WJun 3 · 24:45M. Koczyba351111133M. Adamus2155110
WMay 13 · 18:25M. Koczyba331111113M. Adamus248880
M. Koczyba10
WSep 16 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.7351111123G. Marud2.001188101WSep 16 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.73511119113K. Schaniel2.0011781152LSep 15 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.57111051142G. Jurowicz2.25412118113LSep 15 · 22:10P. Adamus1.671211113M. Koczyba2.1010890LSep 15 · 21:20M. Koczyba2.10561971J. Pruszkowski1.67111117113WSep 15 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.831111113P. Adamus1.836870WSep 15 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.6111611113K. Schaniel2.20211961WSep 15 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.731112113G. Jurowicz2.0071060WSep 15 · 16:15G. Marud2.10118351M. Koczyba1.6751111113LSep 15 · 15:25M. Koczyba1.8361090J. Pruszkowski1.831112113
M. Adamus10
WSep 15 · 16:20M. Adamus1.969111111143R. Gajda1.70113135122WSep 15 · 15:05M. Adamus2.374121111113R. Skotniczny1.51111013332LSep 15 · 13:55M. Adamus1.8301251182K. Jablonski1.831110118113LSep 15 · 12:45L. Oracz1.551111510113M. Adamus2.3079111252WSep 15 · 11:55M. Adamus2.6511119113M. Durda1.40891161WSep 15 · 10:20M. Adamus2.2011118113L. Oracz1.60971191WSep 15 · 09:05M. Adamus2.301112123R. Skotniczny1.55910100WSep 15 · 07:55M. Adamus1.8381112153K. Jablonski1.8311810131LSep 15 · 06:45R. Gajda1.76711711123M. Adamus1.90119119102WSep 15 · 05:55M. Adamus2.6012113113M. Durda1.421071181
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