TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13132830
Played Sep 15Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
1.55
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1171195111012115
Mariusz Adamus
Away
2.30
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:25 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeMariusz Adamus to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
92 points played in total.
Set by set
1171195111012115
H2H Lukasz Oracz 19–17 Mariusz Adamus Mariusz Adamus has won 17 of their 36 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Adamus beat Oracz 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:25What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.55 (60%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-17 in 36
Oracz
Correct
gap of 2 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1346 vs Adamus 1475
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 20% vs Adamus 80%
Adamus
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 10% vs Adamus 70%
Adamus
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz -2 · Adamus +3
Adamus
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.55 / Adamus 2.30
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Oracz)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13132830
Oracz1.55
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 374 of 585
Up 2–0, closes it97% 203 of 210
Up 1–0, closes it82% 292 of 355
Adamus2.30
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 170 of 410
Down 0–1, comes back21% 43 of 209
Down 0–2, comes back8% 9 of 113
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz4wins
AwayAdamus6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz50%2 of 4
AwayAdamus66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz4Adamus6n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S2Oracz4Adamus6n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S3Oracz6Adamus4n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S4Oracz4Adamus2n = 6Oracz took 4 of 6
S5Oracz1Adamus3n = 4Adamus took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczAdamusO − ABasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.838.5−0.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime829 / 1502 vs 800 / 163555.2%48.9%829 / 1502 vs 800 / 1635Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.55/Adamus 2.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.9%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 10:20L. Oracz36971191M. Adamus4111118113
LAug 17 · 21:05L. Oracz3711371152M. Adamus48911116113
LAug 8 · 01:00L. Oracz29123140M. Adamus411411163
WAug 7 · 15:50L. Oracz331111113M. Adamus239770
LAug 6 · 14:40L. Oracz48111111692M. Adamus50713811113
WAug 6 · 06:05L. Oracz331111113M. Adamus196760
LJun 26 · 13:55L. Oracz3931181162M. Adamus44117114113
WJun 26 · 07:55L. Oracz5911141211113M. Adamus51131610662
LJun 25 · 24:25L. Oracz2351080M. Adamus341112113
WMay 15 · 11:30L. Oracz4181111113M. Adamus34117971
L. Oracz10
LSep 15 · 17:05L. Oracz2.205740M. Durda1.601111113WSep 15 · 15:30L. Oracz1.751114183R. Gajda1.90712160LSep 15 · 14:20L. Oracz1.8612780R. Skotniczny1.831411113LSep 15 · 11:30L. Oracz1.85118101272K. Jablonski1.809111210113LSep 15 · 10:20M. Adamus2.2011118113L. Oracz1.60971191WSep 15 · 09:30R. Gajda2.2310980L. Oracz1.541211113LSep 15 · 08:45L. Oracz2.3038100M. Durda1.551111123LSep 15 · 07:10L. Oracz1.80911991K. Jablonski1.8511611113LSep 15 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.861112113L. Oracz1.8051060LSep 14 · 14:40J. Kaczmarek2.631114113L. Oracz1.4471280
M. Adamus10
WSep 16 · 15:35M. Koczyba1.61118641M. Adamus2.2071111113WSep 15 · 16:20M. Adamus1.969111111143R. Gajda1.70113135122WSep 15 · 15:05M. Adamus2.374121111113R. Skotniczny1.51111013332LSep 15 · 13:55M. Adamus1.8301251182K. Jablonski1.831110118113WSep 15 · 11:55M. Adamus2.6511119113M. Durda1.40891161WSep 15 · 10:20M. Adamus2.2011118113L. Oracz1.60971191WSep 15 · 09:05M. Adamus2.301112123R. Skotniczny1.55910100WSep 15 · 07:55M. Adamus1.8381112153K. Jablonski1.8311810131LSep 15 · 06:45R. Gajda1.76711711123M. Adamus1.90119119102WSep 15 · 05:55M. Adamus2.6012113113M. Durda1.421071181
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