TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125582
Played Sep 14Finished
Jakub Kaczmarek
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171412118––––
Lukasz Oracz
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:11 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Kaczmarek above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 63 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 62.1%
63 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kaczmarek 15–17 Lukasz Oracz Jakub Kaczmarek has won 15 of their 32 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 9h before this match
Oracz beat Kaczmarek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:11What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-17 in 32
Oracz
Wrong
gap of 2 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaczmarek 1284 vs Oracz 1403
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 119 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaczmarek 20% vs Oracz 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaczmarek 40% vs Oracz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaczmarek -2 · Oracz -3
Oracz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaczmarek 2.63 / Oracz 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Oracz)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13125582
Kaczmarek2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest33%takes the first set · 3 of 9
As underdog33% won 159 of 483
Down 0–1, comes back18% 56 of 310
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 175
Oracz1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 373 of 583
Up 2–0, closes it97% 201 of 208
Up 1–0, closes it82% 291 of 353
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaczmarek5wins
AwayOracz5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaczmarekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayOracz55.6%5 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaczmarek1Oracz9n = 10Oracz took 9 of 10
S2Kaczmarek5Oracz5n = 10split evenly
S3Kaczmarek6Oracz4n = 10Kaczmarek took 6 of 10
S4Kaczmarek2Oracz3n = 5Oracz took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaczmarekOraczK − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match34.038.5−4.5per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaczmarekOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime478 / 1305 vs 830 / 149836.6%55.4%478 / 1305 vs 830 / 1498Avg sets wonper match1.62.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczKaczmarek 2.63/Oracz 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.7%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kaczmarek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 06:05J. Kaczmarek2559110L. Oracz351111133
LAug 27 · 09:00J. Kaczmarek341081151L. Oracz4312119113
WAug 27 · 04:30J. Kaczmarek331111113L. Oracz269890
LJul 23 · 05:35J. Kaczmarek208570L. Oracz331111113
WJul 16 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek533111413123L. Oracz571191215102
LJul 10 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek214980L. Oracz331111113
WJul 9 · 08:00J. Kaczmarek3631111113L. Oracz33116881
WJul 8 · 22:25J. Kaczmarek50121314113L. Oracz4314111261
WJun 29 · 10:10J. Kaczmarek49811136113L. Oracz49117111192
LJun 29 · 07:45J. Kaczmarek197480L. Oracz331111113
J. Kaczmarek10
LSep 14 · 13:05J. Kaczmarek2.386980P. Kurek1.531111113LSep 14 · 11:50J. Kaczmarek2.00911101342P. Przewlocki1.731191211113WSep 14 · 10:10J. Kaczmarek1.83811119123M. Sikon1.83116811102LSep 14 · 09:00J. Kaczmarek3.509111091K. Slawinski1.2811812113LSep 14 · 07:45M. Sikon1.9111912113J. Kaczmarek1.809111091WSep 14 · 06:55P. Kurek1.4491050J. Kaczmarek2.631112113LSep 14 · 06:05J. Kaczmarek3.0059110L. Oracz1.361111133LSep 14 · 04:30J. Kaczmarek3.501171261K. Slawinski1.2891114113WSep 14 · 03:50P. Przewlocki2.00107111182J. Kaczmarek1.73121168113WSep 10 · 08:00J. Kaczmarek1.923P. Slosarczyk1.731
L. Oracz10
LSep 14 · 13:30L. Oracz2.009880K. Slawinski1.731111113LSep 14 · 12:15P. Kurek2.38811114113L. Oracz1.5311871162LSep 14 · 11:00P. Przewlocki1.831111710113L. Oracz1.8358111262WSep 14 · 09:25M. Sikon2.75781131L. Oracz1.4011117113LSep 14 · 08:35P. Kurek2.381411123L. Oracz1.53124100LSep 14 · 07:20L. Oracz2.10108100K. Slawinski1.671211123WSep 14 · 06:05J. Kaczmarek3.0059110L. Oracz1.361111133WSep 14 · 04:55P. Przewlocki2.00871181L. Oracz1.7311118113LSep 14 · 03:25M. Sikon3.00311911113L. Oracz1.3611611782WSep 12 · 02:10A. Ruszkiewicz2.2581170L. Oracz1.571113113
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