TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125199
Played Sep 14Finished
Jakub Kaczmarek
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5119111113––––
Lukasz Oracz
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:41 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Kaczmarek above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 60 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 62.1%
60 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kaczmarek 15–17 Lukasz Oracz Jakub Kaczmarek has won 15 of their 32 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:41What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-17 in 32
Oracz
Correct
gap of 2 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaczmarek 1308 vs Oracz 1488
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 180 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaczmarek 60% vs Oracz 80%
Oracz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaczmarek 50% vs Oracz 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaczmarek -1 · Oracz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaczmarek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaczmarek 3.00 / Oracz 1.36
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Oracz)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13125199
Kaczmarek3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As underdog33% won 159 of 483
Down 0–1, comes back18% 56 of 310
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 175
Oracz1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite64% won 373 of 583
Up 2–0, closes it97% 201 of 208
Up 1–0, closes it82% 291 of 353
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaczmarek5wins
AwayOracz5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaczmarekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayOracz55.6%5 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaczmarek1Oracz9n = 10Oracz took 9 of 10
S2Kaczmarek5Oracz5n = 10split evenly
S3Kaczmarek6Oracz4n = 10Kaczmarek took 6 of 10
S4Kaczmarek2Oracz3n = 5Oracz took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaczmarekOraczK − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match34.038.5−4.5per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaczmarekOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime475 / 1298 vs 833 / 149736.6%55.6%475 / 1298 vs 833 / 1497Avg sets wonper match1.62.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczKaczmarek 3.00/Oracz 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 06:05J. Kaczmarek2559110L. Oracz351111133
LAug 27 · 09:00J. Kaczmarek341081151L. Oracz4312119113
WAug 27 · 04:30J. Kaczmarek331111113L. Oracz269890
LJul 23 · 05:35J. Kaczmarek208570L. Oracz331111113
WJul 16 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek533111413123L. Oracz571191215102
LJul 10 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek214980L. Oracz331111113
WJul 9 · 08:00J. Kaczmarek3631111113L. Oracz33116881
WJul 8 · 22:25J. Kaczmarek50121314113L. Oracz4314111261
WJun 29 · 10:10J. Kaczmarek49811136113L. Oracz49117111192
LJun 29 · 07:45J. Kaczmarek197480L. Oracz331111113
J. Kaczmarek10
LSep 14 · 04:30J. Kaczmarek3.501171261K. Slawinski1.2891114113WSep 14 · 03:50P. Przewlocki2.00107111182J. Kaczmarek1.73121168113WSep 10 · 08:00J. Kaczmarek1.923P. Slosarczyk1.731LSep 10 · 06:50J. Kaczmarek2.65681571P. Adamus1.38111113113WSep 10 · 05:50J. Kaczmarek2.1411712153O. Sokolowski1.5871110131LSep 10 · 04:20M. Lebek1.311114113J. Kaczmarek3.0091240WSep 10 · 03:35J. Kaczmarek1.911111113A. Burkacki1.738850LSep 9 · 08:00J. Kaczmarek1.831111981M. Sikon1.8391311113WSep 9 · 06:45J. Kaczmarek2.10511711113M. Adamus1.6711811692LSep 9 · 05:35J. Kaczmarek2.103670M. Paszkiewicz1.601111113
L. Oracz10
WSep 14 · 04:55P. Przewlocki2.00871181L. Oracz1.7311118113LSep 14 · 03:25M. Sikon3.00311911113L. Oracz1.3611611782WSep 12 · 02:10A. Ruszkiewicz2.2581170L. Oracz1.571113113WSep 12 · 01:25O. Vincenec2.1011791162L. Oracz1.67511117113WSep 11 · 23:20S. Krupa2.208760L. Oracz1.611111113LSep 11 · 22:35K. Schaniel2.25114911113L. Oracz1.5771111682WSep 11 · 21:00G. Sawicki3.0013770L. Oracz1.361511113LSep 11 · 20:05A. Ruszkiewicz2.50651111113L. Oracz1.5011118962LSep 11 · 19:20O. Vincenec1.8371111123L. Oracz1.831187101WSep 11 · 17:20S. Krupa1.915370L. Oracz1.801111113
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