TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125594
Played Sep 14Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911811811––––
Kacper Slawinski
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:21 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeKacper Slawinski to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukasz Oracz above · Kacper Slawinski below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 58 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Kacper Slawinski at 57.4%
58 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Oracz 6–9 Kacper Slawinski Lukasz Oracz has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Slawinski beat Oracz 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:21What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Slawinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-9 in 15
Slawinski
Correct
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1414 vs Slawinski 1492
Slawinski
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 20% vs Slawinski 80%
Slawinski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 50% vs Slawinski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz -2 · Slawinski +3
Slawinski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Slawinski) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slawinski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 2.00 / Slawinski 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Slawinski)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13125594
Oracz2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 121 of 281
Down 0–1, comes back22% 34 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back10% 8 of 84
Slawinski1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 107 of 155
Up 2–0, closes it98% 50 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it81% 78 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz6wins
AwaySlawinski4wins
Oracz leads 6–4.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz100%6 of 6
AwaySlawinski100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz6Slawinski4n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S2Oracz6Slawinski4n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S3Oracz4Slawinski6n = 10Slawinski took 6 of 10
S4Oracz3Slawinski1n = 4Oracz took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczSlawinskiO − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.832.3+1.5per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczSlawinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime830 / 1496 vs 615 / 99455.5%61.9%830 / 1496 vs 615 / 994Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SlawinskiOracz 2.00/Slawinski 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Slawinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Slawinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 07:20L. Oracz28108100K. Slawinski351211123
WSep 10 · 09:00L. Oracz371111153K. Slawinski2548130
WSep 10 · 04:20L. Oracz4612815113K. Slawinski4310111391
LAug 13 · 12:20L. Oracz208660K. Slawinski331111113
WAug 13 · 08:20L. Oracz331111113K. Slawinski196940
LJan 26 · 15:20L. Oracz30711481K. Slawinski4011711113
WJan 26 · 07:20L. Oracz4111118113K. Slawinski32991131
WDec 30 · 17:40L. Oracz4211119113K. Slawinski33771181
LDec 30 · 11:40L. Oracz2671180K. Slawinski351113113
WDec 4 · 15:20L. Oracz351311113K. Slawinski2811890
L. Oracz10
LSep 14 · 14:40J. Kaczmarek2.631114113L. Oracz1.4471280LSep 14 · 12:15P. Kurek2.38811114113L. Oracz1.5311871162LSep 14 · 11:00P. Przewlocki1.831111710113L. Oracz1.8358111262WSep 14 · 09:25M. Sikon2.75781131L. Oracz1.4011117113LSep 14 · 08:35P. Kurek2.381411123L. Oracz1.53124100LSep 14 · 07:20L. Oracz2.10108100K. Slawinski1.671211123WSep 14 · 06:05J. Kaczmarek3.0059110L. Oracz1.361111133WSep 14 · 04:55P. Przewlocki2.00871181L. Oracz1.7311118113LSep 14 · 03:25M. Sikon3.00311911113L. Oracz1.3611611782WSep 12 · 02:10A. Ruszkiewicz2.2581170L. Oracz1.571113113
K. Slawinski10
WSep 14 · 14:20P. Przewlocki2.50111191192K. Slawinski1.50813118113WSep 14 · 11:25M. Sikon2.7568100K. Slawinski1.401111123WSep 14 · 10:35P. Kurek2.63101111992K. Slawinski1.44129311113WSep 14 · 09:00J. Kaczmarek3.509111091K. Slawinski1.2811812113LSep 14 · 08:10P. Przewlocki2.2511312113K. Slawinski1.578111091WSep 14 · 07:20L. Oracz2.10108100K. Slawinski1.671211123LSep 14 · 05:15M. Sikon2.631511113K. Slawinski1.4413990WSep 14 · 04:30J. Kaczmarek3.501171261K. Slawinski1.2891114113LSep 14 · 03:00P. Kurek2.751011911113K. Slawinski1.4012711782WSep 13 · 16:20K. Slawinski1.271211113R. Wojcik3.2010880
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