TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125587
Played Sep 14Finished
Pawel Kurek
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811118117411116
Lukasz Oracz
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:12 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPawel Kurek above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 88 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 63.2%
88 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Kurek 6–17 Lukasz Oracz Pawel Kurek has won 6 of their 23 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Kurek beat Oracz 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:12What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-17 in 23
Oracz
Wrong
gap of 11 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurek 1402 vs Oracz 1414
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurek 20% vs Oracz 40%
Oracz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurek 50% vs Oracz 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurek -2 · Oracz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurek 2.38 / Oracz 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Oracz)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13125587
Kurek2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 118 of 307
Down 0–1, comes back22% 39 of 177
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 99
Oracz1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 373 of 583
Up 2–0, closes it97% 201 of 208
Up 1–0, closes it82% 291 of 353
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurek3wins
AwayOracz7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurek40%2 of 5
AwayOracz80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurek5Oracz5n = 10split evenly
S2Kurek4Oracz6n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S3Kurek4Oracz6n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S4Kurek2Oracz5n = 7Oracz took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurekOraczK − OBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.737.5−4.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurekOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime404 / 805 vs 831 / 149750.2%55.5%404 / 805 vs 831 / 1497Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczKurek 2.38/Oracz 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.4%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 08:35P. Kurek371411123L. Oracz26124100
LSep 10 · 13:05P. Kurek27114391L. Oracz3741111113
WSep 10 · 06:55P. Kurek3961111113L. Oracz27116731
LSep 7 · 01:10P. Kurek133280L. Oracz331111113
LSep 6 · 17:30P. Kurek4361411662L. Oracz501112511113
WSep 1 · 14:45P. Kurek4311611153L. Oracz408118131
LSep 1 · 11:05P. Kurek391211791L. Oracz4514911113
LAug 20 · 11:00P. Kurek32117681L. Oracz4291111113
LAug 20 · 04:55P. Kurek35119691L. Oracz4291111113
LAug 15 · 01:45P. Kurek195770L. Oracz331111113
P. Kurek10
LSep 14 · 10:35P. Kurek2.63101111992K. Slawinski1.44129311113LSep 14 · 09:50P. Przewlocki2.1015916153P. Kurek1.67131114131WSep 14 · 08:35P. Kurek2.381411123L. Oracz1.53124100LSep 14 · 06:55P. Kurek1.4491050J. Kaczmarek2.631112113LSep 14 · 05:40P. Kurek1.73771181P. Przewlocki2.0011113113WSep 14 · 04:10P. Kurek1.50101211113M. Sikon2.501210281WSep 14 · 03:00P. Kurek2.751011911113K. Slawinski1.4012711782LSep 11 · 17:05R. Skotniczny1.601111113P. Kurek2.109970WSep 11 · 15:55P. Kurek2.2511115113G. Wichowski1.54851141WSep 11 · 14:45S. Szostok1.601011101182P. Kurek2.10124127113
L. Oracz10
LSep 14 · 11:00P. Przewlocki1.831111710113L. Oracz1.8358111262WSep 14 · 09:25M. Sikon2.75781131L. Oracz1.4011117113LSep 14 · 08:35P. Kurek2.381411123L. Oracz1.53124100LSep 14 · 07:20L. Oracz2.10108100K. Slawinski1.671211123WSep 14 · 06:05J. Kaczmarek3.0059110L. Oracz1.361111133WSep 14 · 04:55P. Przewlocki2.00871181L. Oracz1.7311118113LSep 14 · 03:25M. Sikon3.00311911113L. Oracz1.3611611782WSep 12 · 02:10A. Ruszkiewicz2.2581170L. Oracz1.571113113WSep 12 · 01:25O. Vincenec2.1011791162L. Oracz1.67511117113WSep 11 · 23:20S. Krupa2.208760L. Oracz1.611111113
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