TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125216
Played Sep 14Finished
Pawel Kurek
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
10121210112118––
Mateusz Sikon
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:04 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPawel Kurek above · Mateusz Sikon below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 76 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Pawel Kurek at 64.1%
76 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Kurek 16–4 Mateusz Sikon Mateusz Sikon has won 4 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:04What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kurek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-4 in 20
Kurek
Correct
gap of 12 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurek 1410 vs Sikon 1351
Kurek
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurek 80% vs Sikon 60%
Kurek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurek 60% vs Sikon 30%
Kurek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurek +1 · Sikon +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Kurek) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sikon form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurek 1.50 / Sikon 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Kurek)+3.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13125216
Kurek1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 205 of 311
Up 2–0, closes it94% 95 of 101
Up 1–0, closes it84% 142 of 169
Sikon2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 90 of 270
Down 0–1, comes back14% 24 of 171
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 107
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurek8wins
AwaySikon2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKurek leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurek75%3 of 4
AwaySikon16.7%1 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurek4Sikon6n = 10Sikon took 6 of 10
S2Kurek8Sikon2n = 10Kurek took 8 of 10
S3Kurek6Sikon4n = 10Kurek took 6 of 10
S4Kurek6Sikon3n = 9Kurek took 6 of 9
S5Kurek3Sikon1n = 4Kurek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurekSikonK − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.337.9+5.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurekSikonBasisWin rate · lifetime402 / 799 vs 151 / 39750.3%38%402 / 799 vs 151 / 397Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekKurek 1.50/Sikon 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 04:10P. Kurek44101211113M. Sikon321210281
WSep 10 · 09:50P. Kurek3851111113M. Sikon27116461
WSep 10 · 05:50P. Kurek50981111113M. Sikon4711119882
LSep 8 · 24:50P. Kurek35811881M. Sikon4211911113
WSep 7 · 17:30P. Kurek4491111133M. Sikon331174111
WSep 7 · 03:55P. Kurek48111213123M. Sikon4381411101
WSep 6 · 21:55P. Kurek331111113M. Sikon186660
LSep 3 · 14:40P. Kurek43111161052M. Sikon51891112113
WSep 3 · 06:05P. Kurek531111911113M. Sikon4787111382
WJul 31 · 12:40P. Kurek45311911113M. Sikon3911311862
P. Kurek10
WSep 14 · 03:00P. Kurek2.751011911113K. Slawinski1.4012711782LSep 11 · 17:05R. Skotniczny1.601111113P. Kurek2.109970WSep 11 · 15:55P. Kurek2.2511115113G. Wichowski1.54851141WSep 11 · 14:45S. Szostok1.601011101182P. Kurek2.10124127113WSep 11 · 13:30P. Mecik2.267860P. Kurek1.521111113LSep 11 · 11:55J. Pruszkowski1.65111149113P. Kurek2.1095111192LSep 11 · 11:05S. Szostok1.601111113P. Kurek2.108670WSep 11 · 09:55P. Kurek2.05211119143G. Wichowski1.70118511122LSep 11 · 08:45R. Skotniczny1.6091111113P. Kurek2.10117891WSep 11 · 07:30P. Mecik2.1511361192P. Kurek1.60711118113
M. Sikon10
WSep 14 · 03:25M. Sikon3.00311911113L. Oracz1.3611611782LSep 10 · 14:20M. Sikon3.50711881K. Slawinski1.2811511113WSep 10 · 12:40R. Idaczyk2.1086100M. Sikon1.671111123LSep 10 · 11:50L. Oracz1.301111113M. Sikon3.406890WSep 10 · 11:00M. Sikon2.001111113W. Urban1.735570LSep 10 · 09:50M. Sikon2.63116461P. Kurek1.4451111113LSep 10 · 08:10M. Sikon3.75118951K. Slawinski1.2531111113LSep 10 · 06:30R. Idaczyk2.001111312113M. Sikon1.73138111082LSep 10 · 05:50P. Kurek1.44981111113M. Sikon2.6311119882LSep 10 · 04:40M. Sikon3.25411741W. Urban1.3311711113
Upcoming Matches
P. Kurek
Sep 14 · 05:40P. Kurek1.80P. Przewlocki1.91—Sep 14 · 06:55P. Kurek1.44J. Kaczmarek2.63—Sep 14 · 08:35P. Kurek2.38L. Oracz1.53—Sep 14 · 09:50P. Kurek1.80P. Przewlocki1.91—Sep 14 · 10:35P. Kurek2.75K. Slawinski1.40—Sep 14 · 12:15P. Kurek2.38L. Oracz1.53—Sep 14 · 13:05P. Kurek1.44J. Kaczmarek2.63—Sep 14 · 13:55P. Kurek1.50M. Sikon2.50—
M. Sikon
Sep 14 · 05:15M. Sikon2.63K. Slawinski1.44—Sep 14 · 06:30M. Sikon1.73P. Przewlocki2.00—Sep 14 · 07:45M. Sikon1.91J. Kaczmarek1.80—Sep 14 · 09:25M. Sikon3.00L. Oracz1.36—Sep 14 · 10:10M. Sikon1.91J. Kaczmarek1.80—Sep 14 · 11:25M. Sikon2.63K. Slawinski1.44—Sep 14 · 12:40M. Sikon1.73P. Przewlocki2.00—Sep 14 · 13:55M. Sikon2.50P. Kurek1.50—
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