TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13103842
Played Sep 10Finished
Mateusz Sikon
Home
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711115811811––
Kacper Slawinski
Away
1.29
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:07 and never touched — 77.8% is still 77.8%
Graded at full timeKacper Slawinski to win
77.8%
77.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Sikon above · Kacper Slawinski below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 72 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Kacper Slawinski at 77.8%
72 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Sikon 1–3 Kacper Slawinski Mateusz Sikon has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Slawinski beat Sikon 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:07What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Slawinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Slawinski
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sikon 1368 vs Slawinski 1504
Slawinski
Correct
both rated, 136 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sikon 40% vs Slawinski 60%
Slawinski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sikon 40% vs Slawinski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sikon +1 · Slawinski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Slawinski) · live re-read · sealed at 78% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slawinski form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSikon 3.50 / Slawinski 1.28
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Slawinski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13103842
Sikon3.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 95 of 277
Down 0–1, comes back15% 26 of 176
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 111
Slawinski1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite70% won 97 of 139
Up 2–0, closes it98% 46 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it82% 70 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSikon1wins
AwaySlawinski3wins
Slawinski leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sikon2Slawinski2n = 4split evenly
S2Sikon2Slawinski2n = 4split evenly
S3Sikon1Slawinski3n = 4Slawinski took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricSikonSlawinskiSikon − SlawinskiBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match28.833.0−4.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSikonSlawinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 394 vs 616 / 99338.1%62%150 / 394 vs 616 / 993Avg sets wonper match1.72.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SlawinskiSikon 3.50/Slawinski 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.9%
Slawinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Slawinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 10 · 08:10M. Sikon—118951K. Slawinski—31111113
LAug 18 · 07:55M. Sikon—511841K. Slawinski—11711113
WAug 17 · 09:50M. Sikon—1111113K. Slawinski—7880
LAug 17 · 05:40M. Sikon—4980K. Slawinski—1111113
M. Sikon10
WSep 10 · 12:40R. Idaczyk2.1086100M. Sikon1.671111123LSep 10 · 11:50L. Oracz1.301111113M. Sikon3.406890WSep 10 · 11:00M. Sikon2.001111113W. Urban1.735570LSep 10 · 09:50M. Sikon2.63116461P. Kurek1.4451111113LSep 10 · 08:10M. Sikon3.75118951K. Slawinski1.2531111113LSep 10 · 06:30R. Idaczyk2.001111312113M. Sikon1.73138111082LSep 10 · 05:50P. Kurek1.44981111113M. Sikon2.6311119882LSep 10 · 04:40M. Sikon3.25411741W. Urban1.3311711113WSep 10 · 03:40M. Sikon3.5081211113L. Oracz1.281110891WSep 9 · 08:00J. Kaczmarek1.831111981M. Sikon1.8391311113
K. Slawinski10
LSep 10 · 13:30W. Urban2.63811811123K. Slawinski1.44117116102WSep 10 · 11:25R. Idaczyk2.6312850K. Slawinski1.441411113WSep 10 · 10:35P. Kurek2.757590K. Slawinski1.401111113LSep 10 · 09:00L. Oracz2.101111153K. Slawinski1.6748130WSep 10 · 08:10M. Sikon3.75118951K. Slawinski1.2531111113WSep 10 · 07:20W. Urban2.63811461K. Slawinski1.4411611113LSep 10 · 05:30R. Idaczyk2.75611116133K. Slawinski1.40117911112LSep 10 · 04:20L. Oracz2.0012815113K. Slawinski1.7310111391WSep 10 · 03:00P. Kurek2.63861151K. Slawinski1.4411113113LSep 8 · 16:20K. Slawinski1.67111013151S. Szostok2.0041215173
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.