TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125207
Played Sep 14Finished
Pawel Kurek
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111012511––––
Jakub Kaczmarek
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:02 and never touched — 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPawel Kurek above · Jakub Kaczmarek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 58 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Pawel Kurek at 68.5%
58 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Kurek 10–6 Jakub Kaczmarek Jakub Kaczmarek has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:02What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kurek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Kurek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurek 1386 vs Kaczmarek 1326
Kurek
Wrong
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurek 60% vs Kaczmarek 40%
Kurek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurek 60% vs Kaczmarek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurek -1 · Kaczmarek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Kurek) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurek 1.44 / Kaczmarek 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Kurek)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13125207
Kurek1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite66% won 206 of 312
Up 2–0, closes it94% 95 of 101
Up 1–0, closes it84% 142 of 169
Kaczmarek2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As underdog33% won 159 of 483
Down 0–1, comes back18% 56 of 310
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 175
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurek5wins
AwayKaczmarek5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurek100%4 of 4
AwayKaczmarek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurek4Kaczmarek6n = 10Kaczmarek took 6 of 10
S2Kurek5Kaczmarek5n = 10split evenly
S3Kurek6Kaczmarek4n = 10Kurek took 6 of 10
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurekKaczmarekKurek − KaczmarekBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.030.9+2.1per matchSweeps4403–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurekKaczmarekBasisWin rate · lifetime402 / 801 vs 476 / 129950.2%36.6%402 / 801 vs 476 / 1299Avg sets wonper match2.01.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.435.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekKurek 1.44/Kaczmarek 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.7%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kaczmarek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 06:55P. Kurek2491050J. Kaczmarek341112113
WAug 28 · 08:45P. Kurek341211113J. Kaczmarek2010550
WJul 24 · 12:40P. Kurek341111123J. Kaczmarek2367100
LJul 24 · 06:30P. Kurek3316980J. Kaczmarek401811113
LJun 30 · 03:10P. Kurek4679111182J. Kaczmarek50111198113
LJun 29 · 09:00P. Kurek246990J. Kaczmarek331111113
WJun 29 · 04:30P. Kurek351311113J. Kaczmarek2411940
WJun 23 · 07:35P. Kurek3961111113J. Kaczmarek25114371
WJun 17 · 18:00P. Kurek391117113J. Kaczmarek2761560
LJun 11 · 08:45P. Kurek228680J. Kaczmarek331111113
P. Kurek10
LSep 14 · 05:40P. Kurek1.73771181P. Przewlocki2.0011113113WSep 14 · 04:10P. Kurek1.50101211113M. Sikon2.501210281WSep 14 · 03:00P. Kurek2.751011911113K. Slawinski1.4012711782LSep 11 · 17:05R. Skotniczny1.601111113P. Kurek2.109970WSep 11 · 15:55P. Kurek2.2511115113G. Wichowski1.54851141WSep 11 · 14:45S. Szostok1.601011101182P. Kurek2.10124127113WSep 11 · 13:30P. Mecik2.267860P. Kurek1.521111113LSep 11 · 11:55J. Pruszkowski1.65111149113P. Kurek2.1095111192LSep 11 · 11:05S. Szostok1.601111113P. Kurek2.108670WSep 11 · 09:55P. Kurek2.05211119143G. Wichowski1.70118511122
J. Kaczmarek10
LSep 14 · 07:45M. Sikon1.9111912113J. Kaczmarek1.809111091LSep 14 · 06:05J. Kaczmarek3.0059110L. Oracz1.361111133LSep 14 · 04:30J. Kaczmarek3.501171261K. Slawinski1.2891114113WSep 14 · 03:50P. Przewlocki2.00107111182J. Kaczmarek1.73121168113WSep 10 · 08:00J. Kaczmarek1.923P. Slosarczyk1.731LSep 10 · 06:50J. Kaczmarek2.65681571P. Adamus1.38111113113WSep 10 · 05:50J. Kaczmarek2.1411712153O. Sokolowski1.5871110131LSep 10 · 04:20M. Lebek1.311114113J. Kaczmarek3.0091240WSep 10 · 03:35J. Kaczmarek1.911111113A. Burkacki1.738850LSep 9 · 08:00J. Kaczmarek1.831111981M. Sikon1.8391311113
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