TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125567
Played Sep 14Finished
Mateusz Sikon
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711811117311––
Lukasz Oracz
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:14 and never touched — 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Sikon above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 69 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 73.2%
69 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Sikon 4–9 Lukasz Oracz Mateusz Sikon has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:14What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-9 in 13
Oracz
Correct
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sikon 1381 vs Oracz 1454
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sikon 80% vs Oracz 40%
Sikon
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sikon 60% vs Oracz 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sikon +3 · Oracz -2
Sikon
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSikon 2.75 / Oracz 1.40
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Oracz)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13125567
Sikon2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog34% won 91 of 272
Down 0–1, comes back15% 25 of 172
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 107
Oracz1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 373 of 583
Up 2–0, closes it97% 201 of 208
Up 1–0, closes it82% 291 of 353
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSikon4wins
AwayOracz6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSikon66.7%2 of 3
AwayOracz71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sikon3Oracz7n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S2Sikon4Oracz6n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S3Sikon3Oracz7n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S4Sikon2Oracz2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricSikonOraczS − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match29.333.6−4.3per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSikonOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime154 / 400 vs 831 / 149638.5%55.6%154 / 400 vs 831 / 1496Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczSikon 2.75/Oracz 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.9%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 11:50M. Sikon236890L. Oracz331111113
WSep 10 · 03:40M. Sikon4281211113L. Oracz381110891
LSep 7 · 02:45M. Sikon361171081L. Oracz4061112113
LSep 6 · 23:05M. Sikon175660L. Oracz331111113
WAug 28 · 22:35M. Sikon4011117113L. Oracz32491181
LAug 28 · 15:00M. Sikon177460L. Oracz331111113
LAug 27 · 14:20M. Sikon2596100L. Oracz341111123
LAug 27 · 08:10M. Sikon167360L. Oracz331111113
WAug 18 · 03:05M. Sikon331111113L. Oracz143470
WAug 12 · 24:10M. Sikon44411116123L. Oracz46117711102
M. Sikon10
WSep 14 · 07:45M. Sikon1.9111912113J. Kaczmarek1.809111091WSep 14 · 06:30M. Sikon1.801111107153P. Przewlocki1.91771211132WSep 14 · 05:15M. Sikon2.631511113K. Slawinski1.4413990LSep 14 · 04:10P. Kurek1.50101211113M. Sikon2.501210281WSep 14 · 03:25M. Sikon3.00311911113L. Oracz1.3611611782LSep 10 · 14:20M. Sikon3.50711881K. Slawinski1.2811511113WSep 10 · 12:40R. Idaczyk2.1086100M. Sikon1.671111123LSep 10 · 11:50L. Oracz1.301111113M. Sikon3.406890WSep 10 · 11:00M. Sikon2.001111113W. Urban1.735570LSep 10 · 09:50M. Sikon2.63116461P. Kurek1.4451111113
L. Oracz10
LSep 14 · 08:35P. Kurek2.381411123L. Oracz1.53124100LSep 14 · 07:20L. Oracz2.10108100K. Slawinski1.671211123WSep 14 · 06:05J. Kaczmarek3.0059110L. Oracz1.361111133WSep 14 · 04:55P. Przewlocki2.00871181L. Oracz1.7311118113LSep 14 · 03:25M. Sikon3.00311911113L. Oracz1.3611611782WSep 12 · 02:10A. Ruszkiewicz2.2581170L. Oracz1.571113113WSep 12 · 01:25O. Vincenec2.1011791162L. Oracz1.67511117113WSep 11 · 23:20S. Krupa2.208760L. Oracz1.611111113LSep 11 · 22:35K. Schaniel2.25114911113L. Oracz1.5771111682WSep 10 · 11:50L. Oracz1.301111113M. Sikon3.406890
Upcoming Matches
M. Sikon
L. Oracz
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.