TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125324
Played Sep 14Finished
Jakub Kaczmarek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111161189111210
Mateusz Sikon
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Sikon to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Kaczmarek above · Mateusz Sikon below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 97 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Mateusz Sikon at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kaczmarek 2–4 Mateusz Sikon Jakub Kaczmarek has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Sikon beat Kaczmarek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:02What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Sikon
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Sikon
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaczmarek 1302 vs Sikon 1383
Sikon
Wrong
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaczmarek 20% vs Sikon 60%
Sikon
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaczmarek 40% vs Sikon 60%
Sikon
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaczmarek -2 · Sikon -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sikon)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaczmarek form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaczmarek 1.83 / Sikon 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sikon)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13125324
Kaczmarek1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
Sikon1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKaczmarek2wins
AwaySikon4wins
Sikon leads 4–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaczmarek50%2 of 4
AwaySikonn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaczmarek4Sikon2n = 6Kaczmarek took 4 of 6
S2Kaczmarek4Sikon2n = 6Kaczmarek took 4 of 6
S3Kaczmarek1Sikon5n = 6Sikon took 5 of 6
S4Kaczmarek1Sikon4n = 5Sikon took 4 of 5
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away467%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricKaczmarekSikonK − SBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match36.037.8−1.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaczmarekSikonBasisWin rate · lifetime476 / 1301 vs 154 / 40136.6%38.4%476 / 1301 vs 154 / 401Avg sets wonper match1.61.7per matchAvg pointsper match35.936.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SikonKaczmarek 1.83/Sikon 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sikon · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kaczmarek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 14 · 07:45J. Kaczmarek399111091M. Sikon4311912113
LSep 9 · 08:00J. Kaczmarek391111981M. Sikon4491311113
LAug 27 · 11:50J. Kaczmarek31911561M. Sikon3911611113
LAug 27 · 03:50J. Kaczmarek35156591M. Sikon46131111113
WAug 1 · 03:35J. Kaczmarek3912115113M. Sikon331071151
WJul 20 · 11:25J. Kaczmarek331111113M. Sikon226790
J. Kaczmarek10
LSep 14 · 09:00J. Kaczmarek3.509111091K. Slawinski1.2811812113LSep 14 · 07:45M. Sikon1.9111912113J. Kaczmarek1.809111091WSep 14 · 06:55P. Kurek1.4491050J. Kaczmarek2.631112113LSep 14 · 06:05J. Kaczmarek3.0059110L. Oracz1.361111133LSep 14 · 04:30J. Kaczmarek3.501171261K. Slawinski1.2891114113WSep 14 · 03:50P. Przewlocki2.00107111182J. Kaczmarek1.73121168113WSep 10 · 08:00J. Kaczmarek1.923P. Slosarczyk1.731LSep 10 · 06:50J. Kaczmarek2.65681571P. Adamus1.38111113113WSep 10 · 05:50J. Kaczmarek2.1411712153O. Sokolowski1.5871110131LSep 10 · 04:20M. Lebek1.311114113J. Kaczmarek3.0091240
M. Sikon10
LSep 14 · 09:25M. Sikon2.75781131L. Oracz1.4011117113WSep 14 · 07:45M. Sikon1.9111912113J. Kaczmarek1.809111091WSep 14 · 06:30M. Sikon1.801111107153P. Przewlocki1.91771211132WSep 14 · 05:15M. Sikon2.631511113K. Slawinski1.4413990LSep 14 · 04:10P. Kurek1.50101211113M. Sikon2.501210281WSep 14 · 03:25M. Sikon3.00311911113L. Oracz1.3611611782LSep 10 · 14:20M. Sikon3.50711881K. Slawinski1.2811511113WSep 10 · 12:40R. Idaczyk2.1086100M. Sikon1.671111123LSep 10 · 11:50L. Oracz1.301111113M. Sikon3.406890WSep 10 · 11:00M. Sikon2.001111113W. Urban1.735570
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