TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13132838
Played Sep 15Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
1.85
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11981110121210711
Karol Jablonski
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:26 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKarol Jablonski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
101 points played in total.
Set by set
11981110121210711
H2H Lukasz Oracz 2–3 Karol Jablonski Lukasz Oracz has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Jablonski beat Oracz 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:26What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jablonski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1366 vs Jablonski 1366
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 0 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 20% vs Jablonski 60%
Jablonski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 20% vs Jablonski 40%
Jablonski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz -1 · Jablonski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jablonski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (20%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.85 / Jablonski 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jablonski)+3.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13132838
Oracz1.85
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 120 of 282
Down 0–1, comes back22% 34 of 158
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 86
Jablonski1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 16 of 26
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it81% 13 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeOracz2wins
AwayJablonski3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderJablonski leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz66.7%2 of 3
AwayJablonskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz3Jablonski2n = 5Oracz took 3 of 5
S2Oracz1Jablonski4n = 5Jablonski took 4 of 5
S3Oracz2Jablonski3n = 5Jablonski took 3 of 5
S4Oracz3Jablonski2n = 5Oracz took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricOraczJablonskiO − JBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match43.842.8+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczJablonskiBasisWin rate · lifetime829 / 1501 vs 73 / 16055.2%45.6%829 / 1501 vs 73 / 160Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JablonskiOracz 1.85/Jablonski 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jablonski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jablonski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 15 · 07:10L. Oracz38911991K. Jablonski3911611113
LJul 12 · 12:45L. Oracz4611791182K. Jablonski49811118113
WJul 12 · 10:20L. Oracz521171013113K. Jablonski46711121152
LFeb 26 · 15:20L. Oracz439151181K. Jablonski4811179113
WFeb 26 · 07:20L. Oracz4011612113K. Jablonski325111061
L. Oracz10
LSep 15 · 10:20M. Adamus2.2011118113L. Oracz1.60971191WSep 15 · 09:30R. Gajda2.2310980L. Oracz1.541211113LSep 15 · 08:45L. Oracz2.3038100M. Durda1.551111123LSep 15 · 07:10L. Oracz1.80911991K. Jablonski1.8511611113LSep 15 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.861112113L. Oracz1.8051060LSep 14 · 14:40J. Kaczmarek2.631114113L. Oracz1.4471280LSep 14 · 13:30L. Oracz2.009880K. Slawinski1.731111113LSep 14 · 12:15P. Kurek2.38811114113L. Oracz1.5311871162LSep 14 · 11:00P. Przewlocki1.831111710113L. Oracz1.8358111262WSep 14 · 09:25M. Sikon2.75781131L. Oracz1.4011117113
K. Jablonski10
WSep 15 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.489101111112K. Jablonski2.34111268133LSep 15 · 09:55M. Durda1.231111113K. Jablonski3.505550LSep 15 · 07:55M. Adamus1.8381112153K. Jablonski1.8311810131WSep 15 · 07:10L. Oracz1.80911991K. Jablonski1.8511611113WSep 15 · 05:30R. Gajda1.7494110K. Jablonski1.951111133WSep 10 · 16:40J. Pelka1.8311191172K. Jablonski1.81119116113LSep 10 · 15:55O. Jadach1.4717111011113K. Jablonski2.4519912732LSep 10 · 13:55W. Glanowski2.001111113K. Jablonski1.666970LSep 10 · 13:10K. Adamus1.5013911113K. Jablonski2.311111761LSep 10 · 11:30K. Hetnar1.6011116113K. Jablonski2.15941161
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