TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13107286
Played Sep 10Finished
Krzysztof Hetnar
Home
1.60
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119114611116––
Karol Jablonski
Away
2.15
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKarol Jablonski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
119114611116––
H2H Krzysztof Hetnar 2–4 Karol Jablonski Krzysztof Hetnar has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Jablonski beat Hetnar 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:13What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (57%)
Hetnar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Jablonski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hetnar 1484 vs Jablonski 1390
Hetnar
Correct
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hetnar 60% vs Jablonski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hetnar 80% vs Jablonski 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hetnar +2 · Jablonski +3
Jablonski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Hetnar) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jablonski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (47%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHetnar 1.60 / Jablonski 2.15
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Hetnar)-0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13107286
Hetnar1.60
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 263 of 384
Up 2–0, closes it98% 145 of 148
Up 1–0, closes it85% 214 of 251
Jablonski2.15
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 30 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back27% 12 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back17% 4 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeHetnar2wins
AwayJablonski4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderJablonski leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHetnar25%1 of 4
AwayJablonskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hetnar4Jablonski2n = 6Hetnar took 4 of 6
S2Hetnar3Jablonski3n = 6split evenly
S3Hetnar2Jablonski4n = 6Jablonski took 4 of 6
S4Hetnar2Jablonski2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricHetnarJablonskiH − JBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match34.836.5−1.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHetnarJablonskiBasisWin rate · lifetime726 / 1179 vs 69 / 14961.6%46.3%726 / 1179 vs 69 / 149Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HetnarHetnar 1.60/Jablonski 2.15
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.9%
Hetnar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hetnar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 10 · 07:10K. Hetnar—118831K. Jablonski—81111113
WFeb 26 · 14:30K. Hetnar—71111113K. Jablonski—116741
LFeb 26 · 08:30K. Hetnar—11581462K. Jablonski—8111112113
WJul 9 · 04:25K. Hetnar—1211113K. Jablonski—10940
LJun 29 · 16:50K. Hetnar—11116572K. Jablonski—441111113
LJun 10 · 08:20K. Hetnar—6960K. Jablonski—1111113
K. Hetnar10
WSep 10 · 10:20W. Glanowski2.95341151K. Hetnar1.3111118113WSep 10 · 09:30K. Adamus2.029101191K. Hetnar1.6511127113WSep 10 · 08:45K. Hetnar1.83111110113O. Jadach1.87771231LSep 10 · 07:10K. Hetnar1.49118831K. Jablonski2.4581111113WSep 10 · 06:20J. Pelka2.45117761K. Hetnar1.4761111113LSep 8 · 08:00K. Hetnar1.804770R. Skotniczny1.911111113WSep 8 · 06:45K. Hetnar1.3011118113A. Ruszkiewicz3.00641181WSep 8 · 05:35K. Hetnar1.441112123M. Adamus2.50410100WSep 8 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek3.20116821K. Hetnar1.2791111113WSep 8 · 03:35K. Hetnar1.141111113M. Cesarz4.509640
K. Jablonski10
LSep 10 · 10:40J. Pelka1.83117117113K. Jablonski1.8191171152WSep 10 · 09:55O. Jadach1.709101181K. Jablonski2.0011126113WSep 10 · 07:55W. Glanowski1.801114731K. Jablonski1.8551611113WSep 10 · 07:10K. Hetnar1.49118831K. Jablonski2.4581111113LSep 10 · 05:30K. Adamus1.50111011133K. Jablonski2.317125111LAug 14 · 16:40K. Jablonski6.706817101P. Polok1.06111115123WAug 14 · 15:05M. Adamus3.00611111182K. Jablonski1.33111355113WAug 14 · 14:20O. Sokolowski2.358111281K. Jablonski1.5211414113WAug 14 · 13:30K. Jablonski2.35611911113J. Kaczmarek1.5011611982WAug 14 · 12:20K. Jablonski3.651111116113W. Tobiasz1.2361371182
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