TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13132842
Played Sep 15Finished
Rafal Skotniczny
Home
1.48
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
91110121161181113
Karol Jablonski
Away
2.34
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:27 and never touched — 59.5% is still 59.5%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
59.5%
59.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
102 points played in total.
Set by set
91110121161181113
H2H Rafal Skotniczny 6–2 Karol Jablonski Karol Jablonski has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:27What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.48 (61%)
Skotniczny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Skotniczny
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotniczny 1399 vs Jablonski 1354
Skotniczny
Wrong
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotniczny 40% vs Jablonski 60%
Jablonski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotniczny 40% vs Jablonski 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotniczny -2 · Jablonski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Skotniczny) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jablonski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotniczny 1.48 / Jablonski 2.34
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Skotniczny)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13132842
Skotniczny1.48
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 207 of 325
Up 2–0, closes it96% 108 of 113
Up 1–0, closes it82% 156 of 190
Jablonski2.34
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 31 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back28% 13 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back17% 4 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSkotniczny6wins
AwayJablonski2wins
3 of 8 to a deciderSkotniczny leads 6–2, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotniczny71.4%5 of 7
AwayJablonskin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotniczny7Jablonski1n = 8Skotniczny took 7 of 8
S2Skotniczny5Jablonski3n = 8Skotniczny took 5 of 8
S3Skotniczny4Jablonski4n = 8split evenly
S4Skotniczny3Jablonski3n = 6split evenly
S5Skotniczny2Jablonski1n = 3Skotniczny took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricSkotnicznyJablonskiS − JBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set71+6of 8Avg pointsper match42.535.0+7.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicznyJablonskiBasisWin rate · lifetime594 / 1029 vs 72 / 15957.7%45.3%594 / 1029 vs 72 / 159Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznySkotniczny 1.48/Jablonski 2.34
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jablonski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WApr 3 · 11:55R. Skotniczny48116119113K. Jablonski4281171152
WApr 3 · 05:55R. Skotniczny51971311113K. Jablonski48111111962
WDec 29 · 14:30R. Skotniczny331111113K. Jablonski216780
WDec 29 · 08:30R. Skotniczny331111113K. Jablonski227870
LAug 21 · 14:45R. Skotniczny521111119102K. Jablonski53891311123
LAug 21 · 11:05R. Skotniczny3911710111K. Jablonski3931112133
WJul 22 · 14:20R. Skotniczny45111112113K. Jablonski28481421
WJul 22 · 06:20R. Skotniczny3911116113K. Jablonski27381151
R. Skotniczny10
LSep 15 · 09:05M. Adamus2.301112123R. Skotniczny1.55910100LSep 15 · 08:20R. Gajda2.22912118113R. Skotniczny1.54111071162WSep 15 · 07:30R. Skotniczny2.2011611113M. Durda1.57711391WSep 15 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.861112113L. Oracz1.8051060LSep 12 · 08:20R. Skotniczny1.839990K. Adamus1.811111113WSep 12 · 06:45O. Sokolowski3.105870R. Skotniczny1.331111113LSep 12 · 06:00W. Pytlas2.0591111113R. Skotniczny1.64115551LSep 12 · 05:10R. Skotniczny1.809570O. Sokolowski1.851111113LSep 12 · 04:00R. Skotniczny1.38413441P. Mecik2.65111111113WSep 11 · 17:05R. Skotniczny1.601111113P. Kurek2.109970
K. Jablonski10
WSep 15 · 11:30L. Oracz1.85118101272K. Jablonski1.809111210113LSep 15 · 09:55M. Durda1.231111113K. Jablonski3.505550LSep 15 · 07:55M. Adamus1.8381112153K. Jablonski1.8311810131WSep 15 · 07:10L. Oracz1.80911991K. Jablonski1.8511611113WSep 15 · 05:30R. Gajda1.7494110K. Jablonski1.951111133WSep 10 · 16:40J. Pelka1.8311191172K. Jablonski1.81119116113LSep 10 · 15:55O. Jadach1.4717111011113K. Jablonski2.4519912732LSep 10 · 13:55W. Glanowski2.001111113K. Jablonski1.666970LSep 10 · 13:10K. Adamus1.5013911113K. Jablonski2.311111761LSep 10 · 11:30K. Hetnar1.6011116113K. Jablonski2.15941161
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