TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13131735
Played Sep 15Finished
Mariusz Adamus
Home
2.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11912101210––––
Rafal Skotniczny
Away
1.55
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:25 and never touched — 62.6% is still 62.6%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
62.6%
62.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
64 points played in total.
Set by set
11912101210––––
H2H Mariusz Adamus 16–20 Rafal Skotniczny Mariusz Adamus has won 16 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:25What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.55 (60%)
Skotniczny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-20 in 36
Skotniczny
Wrong
gap of 4 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1453 vs Skotniczny 1439
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 60% vs Skotniczny 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 60% vs Skotniczny 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +1 · Skotniczny +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Skotniczny) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 2.30 / Skotniczny 1.55
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Skotniczny)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13131735
Adamus2.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 170 of 410
Down 0–1, comes back21% 43 of 209
Down 0–2, comes back8% 9 of 113
Skotniczny1.55
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 207 of 325
Up 2–0, closes it96% 108 of 113
Up 1–0, closes it82% 156 of 190
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus2wins
AwaySkotniczny8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSkotniczny leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus0%0 of 3
AwaySkotniczny71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus3Skotniczny7n = 10Skotniczny took 7 of 10
S2Adamus4Skotniczny6n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S3Adamus3Skotniczny7n = 10Skotniczny took 7 of 10
S4Adamus4Skotniczny4n = 8split evenly
S5Adamus1Skotniczny3n = 4Skotniczny took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusSkotnicznyA − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.941.9−7.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusSkotnicznyBasisWin rate · lifetime798 / 1636 vs 594 / 102848.8%57.8%798 / 1636 vs 594 / 1028Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznyAdamus 2.30/Skotniczny 1.55
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 04:50M. Adamus32913461R. Skotniczny44111111113
LAug 27 · 12:45M. Adamus47119101162R. Skotniczny50711129113
LAug 27 · 10:20M. Adamus156450R. Skotniczny331111113
WAug 3 · 15:05M. Adamus4171111123R. Skotniczny341158101
WAug 3 · 09:05M. Adamus48861111123R. Skotniczny49111198102
LJun 19 · 11:55M. Adamus49119811102R. Skotniczny45711114123
LJun 19 · 05:55M. Adamus3591111132R. Skotniczny47116811113
LJun 12 · 11:55M. Adamus30114781R. Skotniczny4291111113
LJun 12 · 05:55M. Adamus30511861R. Skotniczny4211911113
LMay 11 · 05:55M. Adamus229670R. Skotniczny331111113
M. Adamus10
WSep 15 · 07:55M. Adamus1.8381112153K. Jablonski1.8311810131LSep 15 · 06:45R. Gajda1.76711711123M. Adamus1.90119119102WSep 15 · 05:55M. Adamus2.6012113113M. Durda1.421071181LSep 14 · 04:20M. Adamus2.30711771O. Jadach1.5511711113WSep 14 · 03:05M. Adamus1.80811811113G. Marud1.8511311692WSep 14 · 01:55M. Adamus1.8181111113O. Vincenec1.82119661LSep 14 · 24:45A. Ruszkiewicz1.751111113M. Adamus1.987890WSep 13 · 23:55M. Adamus1.8581111123J. Nowak1.801178101WSep 13 · 22:20M. Adamus1.62911611123A. Ruszkiewicz2.07115115102LSep 13 · 21:05M. Adamus2.056650G. Marud1.681111113
R. Skotniczny10
LSep 15 · 08:20R. Gajda2.22912118113R. Skotniczny1.54111071162WSep 15 · 07:30R. Skotniczny2.2011611113M. Durda1.57711391WSep 15 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.861112113L. Oracz1.8051060LSep 12 · 08:20R. Skotniczny1.839990K. Adamus1.811111113WSep 12 · 06:45O. Sokolowski3.105870R. Skotniczny1.331111113LSep 12 · 06:00W. Pytlas2.0591111113R. Skotniczny1.64115551LSep 12 · 05:10R. Skotniczny1.809570O. Sokolowski1.851111113LSep 12 · 04:00R. Skotniczny1.38413441P. Mecik2.65111111113WSep 11 · 17:05R. Skotniczny1.601111113P. Kurek2.109970LSep 11 · 15:30R. Skotniczny1.85711110S. Szostok1.801113133
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